🌍 Strait of Hormuz Situation — March 12, 2026

1️⃣ Ship Attacks Reported

• Three vessels were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz.

• One vessel is possibly a container ship operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.

• A Thai-flagged cargo ship caught fire following the attack.

---

2️⃣ Iran Effectively Acknowledges the Attack

Officials from Iran stated:

“The attack was carried out because warnings were ignored.”

This statement is widely interpreted as de facto confirmation of responsibility.

---

3️⃣ Maritime Attacks Expanding

Since the start of the conflict on February 28, there have been at least 13 attacks on ships in the region.

---

4️⃣ Warning on Oil Prices

Iranian authorities warned:

“Prepare for oil at $200 per barrel.”

---

5️⃣ Possibility of Oil Export Shutdown

Iran also stated:

“If U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, not a single liter of oil will be exported.”

---

📊 Current Market Reaction

Markets are currently focusing heavily on the risk of oil supply disruption.

As a result:

👉 Preemptive buying in crude oil is increasing.

The logic is straightforward:

• The **Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil shipments.

• If shipping is disrupted:

Supply shock → Sharp oil price surge

---

📉 Current Market Structure

---

🧠 Market Interpretation

The dominant capital flow in markets right now is:

War risk → Oil buying

Energy supply risk has become the central driver of global financial markets, and any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could trigger another sharp surge in oil prices and renewed safe-haven flows.