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πŸ—žοΈ Range Persists β€” Risk Lies in Sudden Reversals

πŸ—žοΈ Range Persists β€” Risk Lies in Sudden Reversals

🎯 Today’s Key Theme

No clear trend.
Risk sentiment shifts quickly within short timeframes.

Over the past week, neither the dollar nor the yen has shown decisive direction.

Movements in equities, crude oil, and gold continue to drive sentiment shifts from Tokyo β†’ London β†’ New York, creating intraday reversals rather than sustained trends.

πŸ’΄ USD/JPY Overview

Late January:

  • Attempted break below 152 β†’ failed

  • Rally toward 157 (did not reach 158)

Early February:

  • Declined again

  • Trading in a 152–154 range over the past week

πŸ“ Current level: 152.87

The pair sits in a dollar-weak / yen-strong zone,
but downside breaks remain limited.

πŸ’Ά EUR/USD Perspective

Late January:

  • Broke below 1.16 β†’ surged toward the high 1.20s

Afterwards:

  • Pulled back into the 1.17s

  • Now consolidating between the low 1.18s and low 1.19s

πŸ“ Price is hovering near the 50% retracement of the prior rally.

Momentum has stalled.

🌍 Early London Session Moves

β‘  UK Employment Weakens β†’ Pound Drops

  • ILO unemployment rate: worsened to 5.2%

  • Jobless claims: +28.6K

GBP/USD fell from 1.3610 to the 1.3550s.
Temporary dollar strength followed.

β‘‘ Rapid Shift to Risk-Off

  • U.S. equity futures softened

  • Oil and gold declined

  • Reports of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks resuming in Geneva

πŸ‘‰ Risk-off sentiment returned, triggering yen buying.

  • USD/JPY fell to 152.70

  • EUR/JPY dropped to 180.80

  • GBP/JPY fell into the 207s

πŸ“ Current levels:

  • USD/JPY: 152.87

  • EUR/JPY: 181.12

  • GBP/JPY: 207.82

πŸ’΅ Dollar Index (DXY)

  • High: 97.247

  • Current: 97.10

Dollar strength from pound weakness faded quickly as risk-off flows capped the upside.

🧭 Medium-Term Trend

Over a three-month horizon:
πŸ‘‰ Dollar-weak / yen-strong bias

However:

  • BoJ rate hike expectations remain uncertain

  • Fed rate cut expectations lack confirmation

There is no decisive macro catalyst.

The market is waiting.

πŸ“… Key Data Today

  • πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ZEW Sentiment Index

  • πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ UK Employment (already released)

  • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ CPI

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ NY Fed Manufacturing Index

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ NAHB Housing Index

Speeches:

  • Fed Governor Barr

  • SF Fed President Daly

⚠ No obvious game-changing catalyst.
Expect heightened sensitivity to minor headlines.

πŸ”Ž Final Take

βœ” Range-bound environment persists
βœ” Risk sentiment flips quickly
βœ” No confirmed directional breakout
βœ” Market remains nervous and headline-driven

This is not a stagnant market.
It is a volatile but contained market.

Position sizing and exposure management matter more than direction right now.

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