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FX Options Overview — January 12, 2026

FX Options Overview — January 12, 2026

Spot Prices

  • EUR/USD: 1.1668

  • USD/JPY: 158.00

  • GBP/USD: 1.3432

  • USD/CHF: 0.7977

  • USD/CAD: 1.3888

  • AUD/USD: 0.6695

  • NZD/USD: 0.5746

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8684

January 12 (Mon)

EUR/USD

  • 1.1585 (EUR 737m)

  • 1.1600 (EUR 546m)

  • 1.1620 (EUR 869m)

  • 1.1630 (EUR 703m)

  • 1.1635 (EUR 937m)

  • 1.1650 (EUR 1.5bn)

  • 1.1680 (EUR 1.0bn)

  • 1.1690 (EUR 784m)

  • 1.1700 (EUR 1.7bn)

  • 1.1705 (EUR 606m)

  • 1.1800 (EUR 1.6bn)

USD/JPY

  • 154.50 (USD 564m)

  • 156.70 (USD 734m)

  • 157.00 (USD 902m)

  • 158.00 (USD 1.3bn)

  • 160.00 (USD 585m)

USD/CHF

  • 0.7950 (USD 604m)

USD/CAD

  • 1.3840 (USD 558m)

AUD/USD

  • 0.6580 (AUD 629m)

  • 0.6725 (AUD 598m)

NZD/USD

  • 0.5760 (NZD 507m)

EUR/GBP

  • 0.8725 (EUR 520m)

January 13 (Tue)

EUR/USD

  • 1.1625 (EUR 510m)

  • 1.1700 (EUR 822m)

  • 1.1765 (EUR 1.0bn)

  • 1.1800 (EUR 611m)

USD/JPY

  • 157.50 (USD 505m)

  • 158.50 (USD 523m)

GBP/USD

  • 1.3400 (GBP 506m)

USD/CHF

  • 0.7915 (USD 712m)

USD/CAD

  • 1.3925 (USD 899m)

AUD/USD

  • 0.6675 (AUD 548m)

  • 0.6700 (AUD 1.0bn)

NZD/USD

  • 0.5800 (NZD 517m)

🔎 Key Levels to Watch

  • EUR/USD:
    1.1650 / 1.1700 / 1.1800 are the core magnets
    (1.1650 = EUR 1.5bn, 1.1700 = EUR 1.7bn, 1.1800 = EUR 1.6bn)

  • USD/JPY:
    158.00 (USD 1.3bn) is the single largest strike

  • USD/CAD:
    1.3925 (USD 899m) stands out on the upside

  • AUD/USD:
    0.6700 (AUD 1.0bn) is the dominant level

  • NZD/USD:
    Heavy interest clustered around 0.5800

Overall, today’s option board suggests:

  • EUR/USD is pinned between 1.165–1.170, with a larger magnetic pull toward 1.180 if momentum builds.

  • USD/JPY is strongly anchored around 158.00, likely acting as a short-term gravity point.

  • AUD/USD is being shaped around 0.67, while

  • NZD/USD continues to orbit the 0.58 zone.

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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