⚠️ U.S. Government Shutdown Heightens Uncertainty, NFP Delay in Focus
🔍 Situation Overview
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Partial U.S. government shutdown has begun.
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Weekly jobless claims release postponed; high probability that the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will also be delayed.
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The absence of key labor data undermines FOMC decision-making, adding uncertainty to the market’s rate-cut outlook.
💱 FX Market Developments
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USD/JPY: Range 147.38–146.90 → accelerated dollar selling pushed the pair down to 146.73.
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EUR/USD: Rebounded from low 1.17s to 1.1757.
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GBP/USD: Climbed from high-1.34s to 1.3508, holding near highs.
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Yen demand remains strong on risk aversion; combined with USD weakness, cross-yen pairs are also under pressure.
📊 Key Data & Events Today
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Postponed: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
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On schedule: Eurozone final PMIs (Sep), flash HICP, U.S. ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, others.
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Speeches: ECB officials, central bank governors, Fed speakers (Barkin, Logan, Jefferson), BoJ (Governor Ueda, Deputy Governor Uchida).
📌 Outlook for Today
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With key indicators missing, directional clarity is limited; USD selling and JPY buying likely to dominate for now.
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However, be alert to sudden reversals triggered by policy remarks, U.S. budget negotiations, or bond auctions.
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USD/JPY expected to trade mostly within a 146.20–147.50 range.
