โ ๏ธ US Government Shutdown Clouds NFP Release
๐ Impact of US Government Shutdown
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The US Senate failed to pass a stopgap budget โ partial government shutdown.
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This raises the risk that key data such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and weekly jobless claims could be delayed.
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NFP is one of the most important indicators for global markets; a delay means โloss of guidanceโ for traders and investors.
๐ฑ FX Market Reaction
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Dollar selling / Yen buying accelerated
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USD/JPY fell to 146.91 (lowest since Sept 18), now near 147.00.
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EUR/USD climbed into the high 1.17s.
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Cross-yen weakened:
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EUR/JPY near 173.0
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GBP/JPY near 198.0
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Drivers of yen demand:
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Risk-off from US economic uncertainty.
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Market sees Japanโs BoJ in a better position to raise rates after US trade deal progress.
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๐ Todayโs Key Data
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Eurozone: Flash HICP (Sept), Final PMIs.
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US: ADP Employment (+51k exp.), ISM Manufacturing (49.0 exp.), Construction Spending (Aug), MBA Mortgage Applications.
๐ Note: Private-sector data (e.g. ADP, ISM) are not affected by the shutdown and will be released as scheduled.
๐ฃ Key Events & Speakers
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Eurozone: ECBโs de Guindos, Bundesbankโs Nagel, others.
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UK: BoEโs Mann scheduled for TV interview.
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US: Fedโs Barkin (Richmond) to speak.
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Others: BoC meeting minutes, US weekly oil inventories.
๐ Market Levels (European Open)
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USD/JPY: 147.02
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EUR/USD: 1.176x
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GBP/USD: 1.345x
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Eurozone final Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (better than flash 49.5, but still <50 = contraction zone).
๐ Expected Ranges by Pair (Today)
| Pair | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.50 โ 147.80 | Yen demand strong on shutdown risk. ADP/ISM may trigger swings. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1720 โ 1.1800 | Supported by PMI. Could test 1.18 if dollar stays weak. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3420 โ 1.3520 | Directionless ahead of BoE speeches. Dollar moves dominate. |
| EUR/JPY | 172.80 โ 174.20 | Tracks USD/JPY but EUR relatively firm vs USD. |
| GBP/JPY | 197.50 โ 199.50 | Moves around 198.0; overall yen-driven. |
| CAD/JPY | 107.00 โ 108.20 | Oil steady, FX driven by USD/JPY flows. |
| AUD/JPY | 96.80 โ 97.80 | Sideways ahead of CPI. Modest moves with yen flows. |
| NZD/JPY | 85.20 โ 86.20 | Weak GDP outlook caps upside; yen buying offsets. |
๐ Summary
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Shutdown risk casts doubt on NFP timing โ fuels risk-off and yen buying.
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USD/JPY dipped below 147; EUR/USD firmer near 1.18.
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Todayโs focus shifts to ADP jobs & ISM manufacturing as substitutes if NFP is delayed.
๐ Markets remain highly headline-sensitive; traders should prepare for wide intraday swings tied to shutdown headlines and alternative labor data.
