🗓 [Thursday, June 26, 2025]
Ceasefire Confirmed – Markets Stabilize
Focus Shifts to Central Bank Commentary; Is Bitcoin Rebounding?
🕊 Market Mood: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, Risk-On Continues
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The ceasefire between Iran and Israel remains in effect beyond Trump’s declared deadline, and markets now regard it as “tentatively confirmed.”
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The VIX (Volatility Index) is trending lower, reflecting easing tensions and supporting ongoing risk-on sentiment.
🗣 Shift in Focus: Central Bank Speakers Take Center Stage
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell (June 25 Testimony)
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Stance: Maintains a cautious approach, but signaled potential for early rate cuts if inflation cools and employment weakens.
➡️ Result: Gradual dollar selling puts a lid on upside potential in USD pairs.
🇯🇵 BOJ Member Tamura (June 26, Tokyo time)
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Morning: Hawkish remarks – Suggests inflation target achievement may be brought forward → Yen briefly strengthened.
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Afternoon: Dovish tone – Caution urged against hiking during tariff negotiations → Triggered renewed yen selling.
➡️ USD/JPY fluctuated within a narrow range of 144.61–145.17.
💹 Key Assets & Strategy Focus
| Asset | Insights | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 🛢 Crude Oil | Spiked then dropped; ceasefire + U.S. inventory data ahead causing instability | Look for opportunities to sell into strength |
| 💵 USD/JPY | Range-bound due to mixed central bank signals | Watch U.S. data and rate differentials |
| 🪙 Bitcoin | With geopolitical risk fading and rate expectations softening, buying pressure resumes | Maintain dip-buying strategy |
📊 Today’s Key Economic Events
| Time | Event | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | MBA Mortgage Applications | ★☆☆ | Limited macro impact |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | New Home Sales (May) | ★★☆ | Watch for reaction tied to interest rate trends |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | EIA Crude Oil Inventory | ★★★ | Critical for oil reversal or continuation |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 2-Year FRN & 5-Year Auction | ★★☆ | May influence yields and USD tone |
🗣 Key Speakers Tonight
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Fed Chair Powell (Senate testimony – second day)
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Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President)
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Lombardelli (BoE Deputy Governor)
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Trump (NATO Summit – potential high-impact comments)
📈 Markets may begin shifting from geopolitical focus toward monetary policy-driven narratives.
🎯 Trader’s Note
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With a ceasefire now assumed, the current scenario of “sell oil, buy Bitcoin, risk assets firm” continues.
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Today’s theme: “Confirming risk-on continuation” and “Monitoring sustained USD weakness.”
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For a decisive breakout, markets await upcoming U.S. PCE, ISM, and jobs data next week.
