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🌟 Trump’s 100th Day Presidential Speech and Forex Market Outlook (April 29, 2025)

 

🌟 Trump’s 100th Day Presidential Speech and Forex Market Outlook (April 29, 2025)

✅ Key Themes for Today

  • Trump’s 100th Day Presidential Speech (Scheduled for tomorrow morning)
    → Focus on whether he can boost his declining approval rating.
    → Watch for announcements regarding progress on income tax cuts.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Press Conference (Scheduled 21:30 JST)
    → Attention on early trade negotiation progress reports with India and Japan.
    → Depending on demands like auto tariff relaxation, the yen may react sensitively.
  • China’s Ministry of Commerce Remarks
    → “Ready to support normal cooperation with U.S. companies”
    → Eased U.S.-China tensions are providing relief to the market.

✅ Key Economic Data Releases Today (Japan Time)

Event Importance Comment
Turkey March Employment Data â–³ Limited market impact expected.
Eurozone March M3 Money Supply â–³ Supplementary indicator for inflation forecasts.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final (April) â–³ Watch for any major revision from flash figures.
U.S. March Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) â–³ Minor influence; GDP-related.
U.S. February House Price Indices (HPI/S&P Case-Shiller) â–³ Checking resilience of the housing sector.
U.S. March JOLTS Job Openings â—Ž Expected slight decline (forecast: 7.5M); labor market focus.
U.S. April Consumer Confidence Index â—Ž Forecast to drop sharply from 92.9 to 88.0; may strongly impact markets.

✅ Today’s Market Focus

  • First key event: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks.
  • Second key event: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index — A large downside surprise could trigger fresh dollar selling.
  • Relief from eased U.S.-China tensions is slightly supporting risk-on mood.

📈 Today’s Trade Strategy Notes

USD/JPY

  • Range: 142.50–144.00
  • Buy Scenario: Break above 144.00 → Target 144.40
  • Sell Scenario: Break below 142.50 → Target 142.00
    Key Risk: Volatility likely on Bessent’s comments and Consumer Confidence data.

EUR/USD

  • Range: 1.0670–1.0750
  • Buy Scenario: Break above 1.0720 → Target 1.0750
  • Sell Scenario: Break below 1.0670 → Target 1.0630
    Key Risk: Soft Eurozone data could accelerate euro selling.

Gold (XAU/USD)

  • Range: 2315–2350 USD
  • Buy Scenario: Break above 2330 → Target 2350
  • Sell Scenario: Break below 2315 → Target 2290
    Key Risk: Sensitive to U.S. stock moves and risk sentiment shifts.

✅ Summary of Today’s Outlook

  • If Bessent sounds optimistic → Risk-on → USD/JPY buying bias
  • If cautious tone → Renewed dollar selling risk.
  • Watch for Consumer Confidence result for additional confirmation.
  • Continue to favor short-term trading only with strict stop-loss settings.

🎯 Tonight’s Short-Term Trade Map (April 29 Night – April 30 Morning)

USD/JPY

Type Entry Condition Take Profit Target Stop Loss
✅ Buy Break and retest 144.00 (entry at 143.90–144.00) 144.30–144.50 Below 143.60
✅ Sell Confirm break below 142.50 (entry around 142.30) 142.00–141.80 Above 142.80

Comment:

  • Positive comments by Bessent regarding tariffs or exchange rates could strengthen USD/JPY buying.
  • Conversely, cautious remarks could push USD/JPY back into the 142 yen range.

EUR/USD

Type Entry Condition Take Profit Target Stop Loss
✅ Buy Break above 1.0720 and retest (entry 1.0715–1.0720) 1.0750–1.0770 Below 1.0690
✅ Sell Break below 1.0670 (entry around 1.0665) 1.0630–1.0600 Above 1.0695

Comment:

  • Strong Eurozone PMI data could support a euro rally.
  • Risk-off mood on weak U.S. data could trigger renewed euro selling.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Type Entry Condition Take Profit Target Stop Loss
✅ Buy Break and retest 2330 USD (entry 2325–2330) 2350–2360 Below 2315
✅ Sell Break below 2315 USD (entry around 2312) 2290–2280 Above 2320

Comment:

  • Weak U.S. consumer confidence could revive gold buying.
  • If equities stabilize, slight downward pressure on gold is possible.

🛡 Tonight’s Trading Summary

  • First checkpoint: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks at 21:30
  • Second checkpoint: U.S. Consumer Confidence at 23:00

→ If Risk-On sentiment expands:

  • Buy USD/JPY, cross-yen pairs, Bitcoin.

→ If Risk-Off sentiment expands:

  • Buy Gold, Sell EUR/USD, broader dollar weakness.

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