๐ ๐ Declining Approval Ratings for President Trump and Their Market Impact
๐ Market Overview (April 28, 2025)
๐ Trumpโs Approval Ratings Slide โ Market Implications
Tomorrow marks the Trump administrationโs 100-day commemorative rally.
According to a CNN poll (April 17โ24), Trumpโs approval rating has fallen to 41%, the lowest among post-Eisenhower presidents.
โStrong disapprovalโ has surged to 45%.
โถ Market Interpretation
- The marketโs sensitivity to Trumpโs comments appears to be fading.
- Recent market moves have become less reactive, with the dollar index (DXY) remaining stable between 99 and 100 after a downward trend since April.
โถ Focus Going Forward
- The growing influence of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is seen as key.
- Markets are hopeful for a more pragmatic and market-friendly approach.
- However, risks of Trumpโs unexpected statements persist.
๐ Recent Developments and Market Conditions
- The โsell Americaโ trend (USD weakness, equity sell-off) has stabilized somewhat.
- Markets remain highly sensitive to U.S.-China trade negotiation headlines.
๐ Upcoming Economic Events
| Event | Impact Currency |
|---|---|
| Hong Kong Trade Balance (March) | HKD |
| India Industrial Production (March) | INR |
| Mexico Employment & Trade Balance (March) | MXN |
โถ Note: Impact expected to be minimal.
โถ No major market-moving indicators scheduled today.
๐ค Speeches & Events
- ECB Vice President De Guindos
- Finland Central Bank Governor Rehn
โถ EUR could react in the short term depending on comments. - Canadian General Elections:
Observers expect a ruling party advantage, potentially reinforcing countermeasures against Trump’s trade policy. - FRB Blackout Period (until May 8):
No scheduled monetary policy remarks during this period.
โ Trading Strategy Summary
- Main Trend: Range-bound due to lack of strong catalysts.
- Risk: Headline-driven algo moves remain a threat.
- Active Trading: Not recommended. Focus on short-term day trading.
- Watchlist: Canadian election results, U.S.-China headlines.
๐ฌ Commentary
Adopt a defensive stance today.
Avoid heavy positioning; prioritize risk management.
For short-term trades, target small profits โ donโt be greedy!
๐ฏ Recommended Trading Scenarios (April 28)
โ USD/JPY (Dollar/Yen)
| Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Break above 143.30 | Short-term buying (target: 143.70) | Liquidity is thin; rebounds are possible but limited. |
| Break below 142.80 | Sell on pullback (target: 142.30) | Risk-off flows could pressure the pair downward. |
โถ Key Points:
- Expected range: 142.80โ143.70
- High sensitivity to U.S.-China related headlines; sharp swings possible.
โ EUR/USD (Euro/Dollar)
| Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Break above 1.0720 | Buy (target: 1.0750) | Strong PMI figures could trigger upside. |
| Break below 1.0670 | Sell (target: 1.0630) | A resurgence in broad USD strength could accelerate downside. |
โถ Key Points:
- Expected range: 1.0670โ1.0750
- Highly reactive to European PMI flash releases (especially Germany, Eurozone).
โ XAU/USD (Gold)
| Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Break above $2,330 | Buy (target: $2,350) | Continued risk-off sentiment could fuel gold buying. |
| Break below $2,315 | Sell (target: $2,290) | Risk sentiment improvement and strong U.S. data could trigger a sharp sell-off. |
โถ Key Points:
- Expected range: $2,315โ$2,350
- Sensitive to geopolitical tensions (e.g., IsraelโIran) and U.S. stock market trends.
๐ Daily Summary
- USD/JPY: Range-bound but prone to sharp moves on U.S.-China news.
- EUR/USD: Flash PMI releases are key triggers.
- Gold: Direction depends on risk-off/risk-on shifts.
โ๏ธ Trading Notes
- Focus on short-term trades (within a few hours).
- Avoid holding positions overnight, especially in gold.
- Always use stop-losses to protect against sudden swings.
