📌 FOMC Minutes and U.S.-EU Trade Talks in Focus – Watch EUR Movement

📌 FOMC Minutes and U.S.-EU Trade Talks in Focus – Watch EUR Movement

✅ Market Overview

• BOJ board member Takada’s remarks were neutral, with limited impact on JPY.
• UK CPI exceeded market expectations, but GBP buying did not sustain.
• FOMC minutes today are expected to confirm the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
• U.S.-EU trade talks in Washington may influence EUR movement.

📌 Key Points in the Forex Market Today

🎯 1. USD/JPY

📉 Trend: Range-bound
🔎 Movements:

• No clear outlook for BOJ rate hikes, limiting JPY buying.
• If the FOMC minutes lean dovish, USD selling may accelerate.
  📌 Key Level: Watch if the 151.50 support holds.

🎯 2. EUR/USD

📈 Trend: Potential movement based on trade talks
🔎 Movements:

• U.S.-EU trade negotiations in Washington take center stage.
• Tariff disputes could lead to EUR selling, while a conciliatory approach may boost EUR.
  📌 Key Level: Will EUR recover 1.07, or remain in the mid-1.06 range?

🎯 3. GBP/USD

📉 Trend: Weakening
🔎 Movements:

• UK CPI exceeded expectations, but GBP buying was short-lived.
• BOE rate cut expectations persist, capping GBP gains.
  📌 Key Level: Watch if 1.26 support holds.

🎯 4. Gold (XAU/USD)

📉 Trend: Correctional selling
🔎 Movements:

• Gold continues to face selling pressure as Fed rate cut expectations fade.
• FOMC minutes may determine the next move.
  📌 Key Level: Testing support at $1950.

📌 Key Events Today

📅 FOMC Minutes (January 28-29 Meeting)

• Market Expectation: The Fed is likely to maintain its stance of “not rushing to cut rates.”
• Key Point: A dovish tone could lead to USD selling, while a hawkish stance may push USD higher.

📅 U.S.-EU Trade Talks (Washington)

• Market Expectation: Tariff discussions may have a major impact on EUR.

📅 Economic Indicators

• South Africa Retail Sales (Dec)
• Eurozone Current Account (Dec)
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 8 – Feb 14)
• U.S. Housing Starts (Jan)

📅 Speeches & Auctions

• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (Speech on Household Balance Sheets)
• U.S. 20-year Bond Auction ($16B)

📌 Summary

🔹 FOMC minutes will determine USD direction.
🔹 U.S.-EU trade talks may cause EUR volatility.
🔹 UK CPI was strong, but BOE rate cut expectations limit GBP upside.
🔹 Gold remains under correctional selling pressure.

📌 Conclusion: Watch EUR closely amid trade talks, and assess USD reaction post-FOMC minutes. Gold correction remains in focus.