๐ February 14 โ Gold’s Surging Rally! Will US Retail Sales Determine the Dollar’s Trend?
โ Key Market Developments Today
๐ Trump Tariffs: Shift Toward “Reciprocal Tariffs”
- No immediate implementation โ Negotiation period extended until April.
- Markets remain calm with no excessive panic; price movements are stable.
๐ Progress in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks
- Led by President Trump, negotiations continue with multiple nations.
- The Munich Security Conference (Feb 16) will be a major focal point.
- Potential for European backlash against the US acting unilaterally.
๐ Gold’s Astonishing Rally!
- Uncertainty in global markets drives safe-haven demand for gold.
- Missed trading opportunities lead to frustration ๐ฆ
- Goldโs movement remains a key focus for further opportunities.
๐ Today’s Key Economic Event โ US Retail Sales (22:30 GMT)
๐ Market Expectations:
- Headline Retail Sales: -0.2% (Previous: +0.4%)
- Ex-Auto Retail Sales: +0.3% (Previous: +0.4%)
๐ข Key Takeaways:
โ
Better-than-expected data โ Confirms US economic strength โ Dollar bullish
โ
Weaker-than-expected data โ Highlights weak consumer spending โ Dollar bearish
๐ข Other Indicators to Watch:
- US Import & Export Price Index (January)
- US Industrial Production (January)
- Business Inventories (December)
๐ Trading Strategy Moving Forward
๐ฏ 1. Gold (XAU/USD)
๐ Trend: Continued Uptrend โ Proceed with Caution
๐ Strategy:
- Missed the rally, but looking for dip-buying opportunities.
- Monitor political risks and interest rate trends carefully.
๐ฏ 2. USD/JPY
๐ Trend: Dollarโs Direction Hinges on Retail Sales Data
๐ Strategy:
- Watch the US Retail Sales data for Dollar confirmation.
- Despite PPI strength, the Dollar remains resilient, potential for a rebound.
๐ฏ 3. EUR/USD
๐ Trend: Continuation of Dollar Weakness?
๐ Strategy:
- Euro demand persists due to Ukraine ceasefire optimism.
- A strong US retail sales report could shift momentum back to Dollar strength.
๐ฏ 4. EUR/JPY
๐ Trend: Uptrend Continuing
๐ Strategy:
- Risk-on sentiment from Ukraine ceasefire talks keeps Euro in demand.
- Watch price action around the 155.50โ156.00 zone for short-term opportunities.
๐ Upcoming Key Events
๐ February 14 (Friday) โ US Retail Sales (22:30 GMT) โ Main event of the day!
๐ February 14 (Friday) โ Munich Security Conference โ Potential impact on Ukraine ceasefire progress.
๐ข Other Notable Events:
- Speeches from Banca dโItalia Governor Panetta and Dallas Fedโs Logan.
- Earnings reports: Applied Materials, Coinbase, Airbnb.
๐ข Conclusion:
Markets are gradually absorbing the impact of Trump tariffs while keeping a close eye on political risks.
The US Retail Sales report will be a key driver for the Dollarโs direction โ making today a crucial trading session.
Exercise caution and react to market flows wisely! ๐ฅ
