USD/JPY’s Rally Stalls… Is “Taking a Break” the Right Year-End Strategy?
This Week’s Performance:
- Profit/Loss: +0 USD
- Period: December 23–27, 2024
This week concluded with no trades. While entry opportunities were monitored in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and Bitcoin, no clear chances emerged, resulting in a completely passive approach.
Year-End Market Trends and Review
1. Forex Market Movements
- USD/JPY:
Continued dollar-buying sentiment after the U.S. FOMC, rising from 156.14 to 158.08.
→ BOJ’s dovish stance supported yen selling. - EUR/USD:
Declined early in the week due to rising U.S. long-term yields, ending in range-bound trade. - GBP/JPY:
Held firm, climbing near 198 yen.
→ BOE’s cautious approach to rate cuts underpinned the pound. - CAD/JPY:
Briefly strengthened following hawkish remarks but remained weighed down by U.S.-Canada trade concerns. - AUD/JPY:
Directionless, trading sideways amid a lack of key catalysts. - ZAR/JPY:
Rebounded above 8.60 yen due to buybacks against the yen.
2. Reasons for No Trades
- Extreme liquidity decline during the year-end.
- Reduced trading opportunities due to holidays and market closures.
→ Fully adhered to the strategy of “resting is also trading.”
Next Week’s Outlook (Week of December 30, 2024)
1. Forex Market Directions
- USD/JPY:
Upward Bias – Focus on BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. - EUR/USD:
Downward Trend – European economic slowdown concerns and political risks cap gains. - GBP/JPY:
Resilient – Reduced BOE rate cut expectations provide support. - CAD/JPY:
Soft – U.S.-Canada trade tensions and dovish rate cycle weigh on sentiment. - AUD/JPY:
Weakening – Directionless due to a lack of catalysts but watch for sudden movements. - ZAR/JPY:
Range-Bound – SARB-FRB policy differences limit upside potential for the rand.
2. Key Economic Events
- December 30 (Monday): South Africa: November Fiscal Balance.
- December 31 (Tuesday): South Africa: November Trade Balance.
- January 3 (Friday): U.S.: December ISM Manufacturing Index.
Summary and Strategy
Year-end and New Year markets will remain subdued, with potential risks of flash crashes.
- Maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on careful trading strategies.
- Pay attention to assets like Bitcoin, which are less affected by liquidity declines, to secure short-term profits.
Use this week to reflect on the trends heading into the New Year and effectively plan strategies for 2025.
Epilogue:
As this is the final epilogue of the year, let’s take a moment to reflect on 2024 and look ahead to goals for 2025.
Reflections on Trading
This year, Bitcoin trading stood out as a major contributor to profits.
Bitcoin’s exceptional performance following its halving in April 2024, combined with the approval of ETFs and the election of President Trump, created remarkable opportunities. Successfully riding this trend was truly fortunate.
Looking ahead to 2025, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trajectory under President Trump’s influence. However, volatility is expected to intensify. Adopting a more cautious and selective approach will be crucial.
Personal Goals
For 2025, I aim to transform my body to move like a “ninja.”
Although I regularly engage in sports and weight training, a sense of monotony has crept in. To add a spark, I plan to dive into street workouts, exploring activities like handstand walking and bar work that mimic movements in a zero-gravity environment.
Such physical transformations can bring about shifts in mindset and mental resilience, and I’m excited to experience this journey firsthand. If I capture interesting moments, I’ll be sure to share them!
I encourage everyone to set your own goals and make 2025 an incredibly enjoyable year.
Wishing you all a wonderful New Year!
