USD/JPY and Bitcoin Strategy: Navigating Under the Trump Trade
Trading Results (November 11–15, 2024)
Profit: +17,302 USD
Trading Situation:
In line with the continuation of the Trump trade, I kept buying Bitcoin, but failed to capture significant price movements. Currency pairs saw erratic movements after the U.S. economic data release, resulting in all positions being stopped out. Despite some adjustments, the Trump trade trend is expected to persist, and I will continue my strategy of buying Bitcoin.
Market Review for the Week (November 11–15, 2024)
USD/JPY
Movement: Rose to the mid-156 range.
Factors: U.S. long-term bond yield rise, hawkish comments from the Fed Chairman, and dollar-buying momentum from the Trump trade.
EUR/USD
Movement: Fell to 1.0497, hitting a new low since October of last year.
Factors: Political uncertainty in Germany and the broad strength of the U.S. dollar.
GBP/JPY
Movement: Dropped from the mid-198 range to below 197.
Factors: Slower wage growth in the UK and worsening ILO unemployment rate contributing to pound selling.
CAD/JPY
Movement: Rose from the high 109 range to the mid-111 range.
Factors: Stable dollar/yen and support from rising oil prices.
AUD/JPY
Movement: Updated new lows against the dollar, but lacked clear direction against the yen.
Factors: Dollar strength holding back price movement, while the RBA’s hawkish stance provides some support.
ZAR/JPY
Movement: Dropped to 8.48.
Factors: Dollar buying and weak South African economic indicators.
Forex Outlook and Strategy for the Week (November 18, 2024)
USD/JPY
Direction: Continued rise.
Outlook: Supported by the Trump trade and expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes. Although concerns about government and BOJ intervention remain, there is little likelihood of intervention until the 161 yen level.
EUR/USD
Direction: Weak.
Outlook: The dollar’s broad strength is likely to continue, with the euro searching for a bottom. Focus on the European PMI preliminary data.
GBP/JPY
Direction: Bearish.
Outlook: Potential for further pound selling depending on UK CPI data.
CAD/JPY
Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
Outlook: Canadian CPI data could influence rate cut expectations, and oil price movements remain key.
AUD/JPY
Direction: Bearish.
Outlook: Dependent on Australian economic indicators. Dollar strength and intervention risks continue to limit upside potential.
ZAR/JPY
Direction: Bearish.
Outlook: Focus on South Africa’s policy rate decision. Expectations of a rate cut may lead to further selling of the rand.
Key Economic Events for the Week
November 20 (Wednesday)
- South Africa: October CPI, September Retail Sales
November 21 (Thursday)
- South Africa: SARB (South African Reserve Bank) Policy Rate Decision
November 22 (Friday)
- Eurozone: November PMI Preliminary (by country)
- Canada: October CPI
Summary Points and Strategy
- Dollar Buy Strategy
Continuing the focus on dollar strength supported by the Trump trade and expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes. - Strengthening Bitcoin Buy Strategy
After the recent adjustments in the crypto market, I’ll continue to buy Bitcoin, anticipating a rebound. - Monitoring Economic Events
I will closely observe the impact of the European PMI, South Africa’s policy rate decision, and Canadian CPI on the market.
This week, I will maintain the focus on the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin, adapting my strategy to market adjustments and aiming to capture profitable opportunities during this period.
Closing Thoughts
Thank you for reading this week’s FX trade report. Trading requires a high level of concentration, but our focus can be easily affected by daily stress, environmental factors, and lifestyle. To help you improve your concentration, I would like to share some scientifically-backed tips that are particularly useful for traders.
Practical Ways to Improve Focus:
- Challenge Your Brain with Games
Games like Sudoku or crossword puzzles can help improve short-term memory and problem-solving skills. Try incorporating these brain exercises between your trading sessions. - Ensure Quality Sleep
Lack of sleep can impair your concentration and decision-making. Aim for 7–8 hours of sleep each night and avoid using smartphones or PCs before bed. - Incorporate Regular Exercise
Light walking or stretching increases blood flow to the brain and enhances concentration. A quick workout before trading can clear your mind and help you focus. - Refresh in Nature
Walking in green spaces or placing plants on your desk can reduce stress and improve focus. - Support Your Brain with Food
Include brain-boosting foods like salmon, blueberries, and eggs in your diet. Staying hydrated is also crucial. - Use Music or White Noise
Playing relaxing music or white noise can block out distractions and improve focus during trading. - Time Management with a Timer
The Pomodoro Technique (25 minutes of work followed by a 5-minute break) can help maintain focus and efficiency in short bursts. - Moderate Caffeine Intake
Caffeine from coffee or green tea can temporarily enhance focus. However, be mindful of overconsumption.
Conclusion
There are many ways to improve focus, but it’s important to try different methods and find what works best for you. As your concentration improves, so will your trading precision and speed. By maintaining healthy lifestyle habits, you can maximize your trading performance.
See you again in next week’s report!
