WHO Declares Mpox (Monkeypox) Emergency as Cases Confirmed Outside Africa: Market Impact Analysis
On August 14, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an “international public health emergency of concern” regarding Mpox (monkeypox), which is spreading in Africa. The following day, Sweden’s Public Health Agency announced the first confirmed case of the Clade I strain of Mpox in the country.
Mpox is an infectious disease caused by the monkeypox virus, with two lineages: Clade I and Clade II. Clade I has been spreading primarily in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and this is the first case confirmed outside Africa. The Swedish patient is reported to have contracted the infection in an outbreak area in Africa.
According to the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mpox cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone have reached 14,000 this year, a 160% increase compared to the same period last year. The death toll has also risen by 19% to 524.
The global Mpox outbreak between 2022 and last year was caused by the Clade IIb strain, but Clade I is suspected to carry a higher risk of severe illness.
Market Impact Forecast: Risk of a Sharp Decline in Oil Prices
If Mpox were to spread globally, we could see a repeat of the events during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the suspension of flights and disruptions in logistics, potentially leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. During the initial COVID-19 outbreak, oil prices even fell into negative territory, and a similar trend could occur this time.
Already, the global pharmaceutical stocks have surged due to the anticipation of vaccine demand. While it remains uncertain how far Mpox will spread, the market seems to be pricing in this possibility. Therefore, advancing a strategy of selling oil seems reasonable.
It will be crucial to continue monitoring the spread of Mpox and its impact on the market, while remaining flexible in response.
