The Bank of Japan decision meeting did not see any particularly new measures, and the continuation of the easing measures was confirmed. Some in the market were preparing for a surprise, such as an expansion of the YCC fluctuation range or abolishment, but they have failed. The dollar-yen pair surged from below the 135-yen level to around 136.97 at one point. After that, trading was mixed, but the pair found a calming point in the upper half of the 136 yen range. It seems unlikely that new material will emerge from the press conference of Governor Kuroda, who has already decided to step down.
The next focus is likely to be on the US employment statistics and the trend of US stocks, which fell sharply the day before. The U.S. employment report predicts that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level as last time at 3.4%. The problem is the increase or decrease in the number of non-agricultural sector employees. The market forecast is for an increase of 225,000, and it is expected to return to the average level from the increase of 517,000, which is far higher than the previous forecast. However, there are uncertainties in the labor market, such as active restructuring of high-tech companies. There seems to be a risk that the divergence between the forecast and the result will become larger this time as well. As for wages, average hourly wages are expected to rise by 4.7% year-on-year from +4.4% in the previous survey, which is expected to support the aggressive stance of the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Market attention is high, and it seems that they will respond sensitively to a difference of 0.1 percentage points.
The US stock market fell yesterday led by bank stocks. Some U.S. regional banks have fallen sharply against the background of deteriorating cash flow, which has spread to the sale of major bank stocks. There is concern that financial institutions whose assets have deteriorated due to sharp fluctuations in US Treasury bonds and the melting of bitcoins may still be hidden. It will be interesting to see if the decline in bank stocks slows down over the weekend.
After passing the Bank of Japan, the yen remains weak. After that, we will wait for the results of the US employment statistics, and then follow the trend.
