Today’s Market Outlook

November 13, 2026

USD/JPY Reverses Sharply from 160.19; US PPI and Whether the Pair Can Hold Above 160 in Focus Tonight

Market Overview

USD/JPY rose to 160.19 late in the Tokyo session, then quickly reversed to 159.66. It recovered to around 159.90 early in London as the market awaited the US Producer Price Index (PPI).

This week, hotter-than-expected US CPI and comments from Fed officials have supported expectations for a December rate hike, lending support to the dollar. At the same time, concern about yen-buying intervention is strong above 160, making it difficult for buying to continue even when the pair breaks higher.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1048 during the Tokyo morning, then rebounded to 1.1073 before trading near 1.1065 early in London. Its range has been limited compared with USD/JPY, which swung by about 50 sen in a short time. The sharp move late in Tokyo appears to have reflected not only broad dollar sentiment but also yen-related orders near 160.

USD/JPY and Intervention Concerns

When USD/JPY broke above the previous day’s high of 160.05, it triggered stop-losses on short positions and climbed to 160.19. Yen buying then emerged, erasing the gains. Trading related to options expiring at the Tokyo cut was also in focus, but this price action alone is not enough to conclude that intervention took place.

Finance Minister Katayama said that one-sided and rapid movements had been observed and indicated that Japan would respond appropriately in coordination with the United States. If the yen weakens rapidly above 160 again tonight, attention is likely to turn to official comments and the possibility of rate checks.

On the upside, the first test is whether the pair can recover 160.00 and break above today’s high of 160.19. The September 2 high of 160.39 lies beyond. On the downside, 159.66 is the immediate level to watch. If the pair breaks below it and 159.50 also fails to hold, a correction toward 159.00 could come into view.

US PPI — 1:30 p.m. London Time

The US October PPI will be released at 1:30 p.m. London time. Since year-over-year figures were not published with this week’s US CPI, the market is also paying close attention to the PPI’s annual rates.

• Headline PPI, month over month: forecast +0.4%, previous +1.3%
• Headline PPI, year over year: forecast +6.6%, previous +6.3%
• Core PPI, month over month: forecast +0.3%, previous +0.7%
• Core PPI, year over year: forecast +5.0%, previous +5.0%

The market expects inflation to remain elevated year over year, while monthly growth in both headline and core PPI is expected to slow. As a result, elevated annual rates alone may not trigger further dollar buying. The key is whether the monthly slowdown is less pronounced than expected.

If both headline and core PPI exceed forecasts month over month, persistent price pressures may again come into focus after the US CPI report. Markets may then reassess the size of a December rate hike and the pace of future increases. Conversely, if core PPI also undershoots and US short-term yields fall, this week’s accumulated dollar buying could unwind.

Fed Speakers and Tonight’s Schedule

New York Fed President John Williams said inflation remains too high and pointed to the need for further measures to bring it under control. After the PPI release, watch for other officials to comment on the size and pace of rate hikes.

• 1:30 p.m.: US PPI; Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales
• 2:10 p.m.: Opening remarks by Boston Fed President Susan Collins
• 2:40 p.m.: Opening remarks by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
• 3:35 p.m.: Television appearance by President Collins
• 3:50 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
• 5:00 p.m.: Discussion with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Collins’s television appearance and Daly’s discussion, which includes a question-and-answer session, may offer further clues about the policy outlook. The market’s initial reaction to PPI could also shift in response to officials’ comments.

Euro and Cross-Yen Pairs

The immediate range for EUR/USD is 1.1048–1.1073. If US PPI is strong and the pair breaks below 1.1048, the psychological 1.1000 level could come into focus. Conversely, if US yields fall and EUR/USD breaks above 1.1073, the next test is whether it can reclaim 1.1100.

EUR/JPY rose to around 177.13 late in the Tokyo session before retreating into the 176.60s. Even if US PPI is strong, a decline in EUR/USD could prevent a rise in USD/JPY from translating directly into gains for EUR/JPY. If USD/JPY and the cross-yen pairs fall together, that would be a clue that yen buying is broadening.

USD/CAD

Canadian data will be released at the same time as US PPI. Canadian manufacturing sales for September are forecast to rise 0.1% month over month, slowing from the previous 1.5%.

If US PPI exceeds expectations while Canadian data undershoot, the combination could encourage US dollar buying and Canadian dollar selling. To the upside, 1.4319 is the next level to watch; a clear break above it would put around 1.4365 in view. If US and Canadian data move in the same direction, watch which release continues to influence the market after the initial reaction.

Options Market

The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose to 7.09% from 6.67% the previous day. However, in the one-month risk reversal, demand for protection against yen strength has eased compared with a week ago.

Concern about wider short-term price swings has increased, but hedging against yen strength has not intensified further. The market may be prone to swings on both sides of 160.

Scenario Outlook

If PPI is close to expectations, rate-hike expectations supporting the dollar and intervention concerns above 160 are likely to compete, leaving USD/JPY to search for direction between the upper 159s and 160.

If PPI is stronger than expected and US short-term yields rise, the pair could retest 160.19. If it quickly falls back below 160 after breaking above 160.19, however, buying at higher levels may struggle to continue.

Conversely, if core PPI undershoots and USD/JPY breaks below 159.66 as US yields fall, dollar buying could unwind ahead of the weekend. Tonight, the key is not simply whether the pair touches 160, but whether it can hold that level with support from US yields after the PPI release.