Technical Analysis
28 September 2026
Market Overview
Today’s main themes are broad yen strength, a sharp decline in precious metals, higher oil prices and gains in US equities.
In FX, USD/JPY and the cross-yen pairs are falling. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY are showing strong sell signals across all timeframes.
Among the dollar pairs, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain weak, indicating that the broader strong-dollar trend is continuing. In contrast, GBP/USD is showing buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart, highlighting the pound’s relative strength.
In commodities, gold fell by around 3.6% and silver by around 5.5%. By contrast, WTI crude oil rose by around 4.0% and is showing strong buy signals across all timeframes.
In equities, the S&P 500 is showing strong buy signals across all timeframes. The Nasdaq 100 also retains strong buy signals on the hourly and daily charts. In contrast, the DAX remains under broad selling pressure.
Key Changes Since the Previous Update
• WTI crude oil rose from 92.68 to 96.37, up around 4.0%.
• Gold futures fell from 4,339.62 to 4,183.47, down around 3.6%.
• Silver futures fell from 65.260 to 61.675, down around 5.5%.
• XAU/USD fell from 4,302.57 to 4,151.35, down around 3.5%.
• XAG/USD fell from 64.8130 to 61.3165, down around 5.4%.
• BTC/USD fell from 84,601 to 83,093, down around 1.8%.
• The Dow Jones rose from 51,349.98 to 51,828.62, up around 0.9%.
• The S&P 500 rose from 7,704.13 to 7,743.41, up around 0.5%.
• The Nikkei 225 fell from 66,364.20 to 65,908.00, down around 0.7%.
Within commodities, crude oil and precious metals are moving in completely opposite directions.
FX Market
EUR/USD: 1.1371
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly and daily charts are all showing strong sell signals.
EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1403 in the previous update, with euro weakness and dollar strength continuing. As the hourly and daily charts are aligned, the basic approach is to sell rallies.
GBP/USD: 1.3253
The 5-minute through hourly charts are showing buy signals, while the daily chart remains a strong sell.
Pound buying is dominant in the short term, but the daily downtrend remains intact. Buying on dips is appropriate for short-term trading, while rallies remain potential selling opportunities on the daily timeframe.
USD/JPY: 157.06
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
USD/JPY has fallen from 157.64 in the previous update. While many pairs continue to reflect dollar strength, USD/JPY is declining, indicating that yen buying is having a stronger influence than dollar selling.
The basic approach is to sell rallies. A clear break below ¥157 would bring continued downside into focus.
USD/CHF: 0.8318
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
This is the clearest dollar-buying pair among the major dollar pairs. Dollar strength and Swiss-franc weakness are aligned.
The basic approach is to buy on dips.
AUD/USD: 0.7012
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly and daily charts are all showing strong sell signals.
AUD/USD is approaching 0.7000, with Australian-dollar weakness and dollar strength continuing. The basic approach is to sell rallies.
NZD/USD: 0.5659
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly and daily charts are all showing strong sell signals.
As with AUD/USD, the downtrend is aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart. The basic approach is to sell rallies.
Cross-Yen Pairs
EUR/JPY: 178.60
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Euro weakness and yen buying are reinforcing each other. This is one of the clearest downtrends among the cross-yen pairs.
The basic approach is to sell rallies.
GBP/JPY: 208.16
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
GBP/JPY is falling despite the short-term rise in GBP/USD, confirming the strength of yen buying.
The basic approach is to sell rallies.
CHF/JPY: 188.83
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The strong rise in USD/CHF and the decline in USD/JPY are combining to push CHF/JPY sharply lower.
The pair has fallen around 0.8% from 190.34 in the previous update and is particularly weak among the cross-yen pairs.
EUR/GBP: 0.8580
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are showing strong sell signals.
The pound is stronger than the euro. With the hourly and daily charts aligned, the basic approach is to sell rallies.
AUD/JPY: 110.13
The 15-minute chart is a sell, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells. The 5-minute chart is neutral.
Australian-dollar weakness and yen buying are combining. Even if a short-term rebound occurs, selling on rallies remains preferable while the hourly chart continues to signal a sell.
NZD/JPY: 88.87
The 15-minute chart is a sell, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells. The 5-minute chart is neutral.
The pair has broken below ¥89 and New Zealand dollar weakness is continuing. The basic approach is to sell rallies.
CAD/JPY: 110.90
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
CAD/JPY is declining despite the sharp rise in WTI crude oil. Yen buying is currently exerting a greater influence than Canadian-dollar buying linked to higher oil prices.
AUD/NZD: 1.2392
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, and the daily chart is a buy.
NZD strength is dominant in the short term, while the Australian dollar remains stronger on the daily timeframe. Selling on rallies is appropriate in the short term, but the conflict with the daily chart requires caution.
EUR/CHF: 0.9458
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
Although EUR/USD is weak, the rise in USD/CHF is even stronger, leaving EUR/CHF aligned to the upside.
The basic approach is to buy on dips.
Commodity Market
Gold Futures: 4,183.47
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Gold has fallen around 3.6% from the previous update, with selling pressure fully aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart. Rather than trying to anticipate a rebound, it is preferable to wait for the hourly sell signal to ease.
The basic approach is to sell rallies.
XAU/USD: 4,151.35
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
There is scope for a short-term rebound following oversold conditions, but the medium-term and daily trends remain clearly downward.
Selling after a short-term rebound is the preferred approach.
Silver Futures: 61.675
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
Silver has fallen around 5.5% from the previous update, producing even stronger selling pressure than gold. The short-term charts have improved to neutral, but the hourly sell signal remains in place.
XAG/USD: 61.3165
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
As with silver futures, the market is consolidating after a sharp decline. Selling on rallies remains preferable until the hourly chart improves to neutral.
WTI Crude Oil: US$96.37
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
WTI has risen around 4.0% from 92.68 in the previous update, making it the clearest bullish market in commodities.
The basic approach is to buy on dips. However, given the speed of the advance, it is preferable to wait for a short-term correction and renewed upside momentum rather than chase highs.
Natural Gas: 3.101
The 5-minute through hourly charts are strong sells, while the daily chart is a strong buy.
A short-term correction within the daily uptrend is continuing. If short-term selling eases, it could become a buying-on-dips opportunity in line with the daily trend. For now, however, it is better not to rush into long positions.
BTC/USD: US$83,093
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.
This is a correction within the daily uptrend, but hourly selling pressure remains. The 5-minute chart is rebounding, although a medium-term bottom has not yet been confirmed.
Waiting is preferable until the hourly chart improves to neutral or buy.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones: 51,828.62
The 5-minute through hourly charts are strong buys, while the daily chart is a strong sell.
The short-term rebound is clear, but it remains an advance within the daily downtrend. Buying on dips is appropriate in the short term, while rallies remain potential selling opportunities on the daily timeframe.
S&P 500: 7,743.41
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
This is the most stable uptrend among the major equity indices. Buying on dips is the basic approach, with buy signals aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart.
Nasdaq 100: 30,608.13
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are strong buys.
The medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact, although profit-taking is emerging in the short term. If the 5-minute sell signal eases, it could become a buying-on-dips opportunity.
DAX: 25,363.31
The 5-minute chart is a sell, while the 15-minute through daily charts are strong sells.
The decline seen in the previous update is continuing. The DAX remains weak among European equity indices, and the basic approach is to sell rallies.
UK 100: 10,720.37
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy and the daily chart is neutral.
The market has turned higher from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart. With the daily chart still neutral, it is a short-term buying-on-dips candidate.
CAC 40: 8,088.23
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
This is a short-term rebound within the daily downtrend. Until the hourly chart turns to a buy, it is too early to regard the move as a medium-term reversal.
Nikkei 225: 65,908.00
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral and the daily chart is a strong buy.
After previously showing strong buy signals across all timeframes, the Nikkei has moved into a short-term correction. The daily uptrend remains intact.
If short-term selling eases and the 15-minute chart improves, it could become a buying-on-dips opportunity.
Strength Rankings
S Rank
• WTI crude oil
• USD/CHF
• EUR/CHF
• S&P 500
A Rank
• Nasdaq 100 on the hourly and daily charts
• UK 100 on the short-term charts
• GBP/USD on the short-term charts
• Dow Jones on the short-term charts
B Rank
• Nikkei 225 on the daily chart
• BTC/USD on the daily chart
Weakness Rankings
S Rank
• Gold
• Silver
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/JPY
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
A Rank
• EUR/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/GBP
• DAX
B Rank
• AUD/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• BTC/USD on the hourly chart
• Natural gas on the short-term charts
Trading Strategy
Buy-Biased Markets
• WTI crude oil
• USD/CHF
• EUR/CHF
• S&P 500
Buying-on-Dips Candidates
• Nasdaq 100
• UK 100 in the short term
• GBP/USD in the short term
• Nikkei 225 on the daily timeframe
Sell-Biased Markets
• Gold
• Silver
• EUR/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/JPY
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• DAX
Selling-on-Rallies Candidates
• EUR/GBP
• AUD/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• AUD/NZD in the short term
• CAC 40 on the daily timeframe
Prioritise Direction Confirmation
• USD/JPY
• BTC/USD
• Natural gas
• Dow Jones
• Nikkei 225 in the short term
Key Points
The clearest buying candidates are WTI crude oil, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and the S&P 500.
The clearest selling candidates are gold, silver, the cross-yen pairs and the DAX.
In this market, higher oil prices and lower precious metals are occurring at the same time. This is not a broad commodity rally; it is a market divided between energy buying and precious-metals selling.
The cross-yen pairs are aligned in the direction of yen strength. Holding multiple positions based on the same yen-buying theme creates overlapping exposure, making careful adjustment of both the number of positions and position sizes essential.
