【-41,684 USD】BTC Long Trade Fails as Counter-Trend Positioning Backfires in a Strong Dollar Market | US Jobs Report Next in Focus
Trading Results (21–25 September)
Weekly Total: -41,684 USD
Weekly Review
This week, results diverged sharply between positions that followed the stronger US dollar trend and positions that anticipated a rebound too early.
In USD/CHF, we were able to turn the ongoing dollar strength directly into profits.
In contrast, BTC and NZD/CAD losses came from expecting a rebound too soon, resulting in long positions in markets that were still weak.
The key lesson from the week is simple.
We were able to profit by following strong trends.
We lost when we tried to trade against weakness.
The weekly result was -41,684 USD.
The issue was not so much entry precision itself, but our failure to accept the market’s relative strength and weakness as it stood.
Going forward, we will avoid thinking, “It is cheap, so it should be bought,” or “It has fallen too far, so it should rebound.”
Instead, we will return to the basics:
Buy what is actually being bought now, and sell what is actually being sold now.
Going Forward
From next week onward, we will focus on the following five points:
• If dollar strength continues, choose the currency pairs that respond to it most directly.
• Do not anticipate rebounds in weak markets such as BTC or NZD.
• Do not make USD/JPY the core dollar-long trade because of intervention risk.
• Prioritise the current trend in oil rather than forecasts.
• Keep positions light ahead of major data releases.
FX Strategy Update
28 September–2 October 2026 | Market Outlook
Previous Week’s Trading Result: -41,684 USD
The Core Theme for Next Week
The first question for next week is simply this:
Will the US employment report provide further support for the current strong-dollar trend?
Following the FOMC meeting, expectations for further rate hikes remain in place and US long-term yields are holding at elevated levels.
As a result, the dollar remains stronger than the major currencies.
However, USD/JPY is different.
After rising into the 159-yen area, verbal intervention from Japanese authorities triggered a sharp decline back into the 156-yen range.
In other words:
The dollar is strong.
But USD/JPY cannot be bought straightforwardly.
This distinction needs to be recognised.
If the goal is to trade dollar strength next week, we will prioritise markets with less policy-intervention risk, such as USD/CHF and EUR/USD, rather than USD/JPY.
The US Jobs Report Will Test the Staying Power of Dollar Strength
The biggest event is the US employment report on 2 October.
The focus is not limited to payrolls.
The key figures are:
• Non-farm payrolls
• The unemployment rate
• Average hourly earnings
• Revisions to previous data
A strong report would support the current sequence:
Expectations of further rate hikes
↓
Higher US yields
↓
Dollar buying
Conversely, if employment deteriorates sharply, the accumulated dollar-long positions could begin to unwind.
What matters more than the headline figures themselves is whether US yields genuinely rise after the release.
If yields fail to rise even after a strong employment report, the dollar rally may have reached a near-term peak.
Early Week: The Build-Up to Payrolls
A series of important indicators will be released before the jobs report, including JOLTS, ADP, PCE and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
The question is whether the US economy remains strong while inflation also stays elevated.
If that combination persists, the Federal Reserve will find it easier to continue tightening policy.
Conversely, if economic data weakens in succession, dollar strength could begin to break down even before the employment report.
There is no need to build large positions early in the week. We will assess the flow of data and narrow down the best opportunities heading into Friday.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is not a market in which to chase highs aggressively.
The US-Japan yield gap continues to support the pair, but policy action becomes a growing concern in the 159–160-yen area.
USD/JPY currently has a particular structure:
There are reasons for it to rise, but the higher it rises, the more dangerous it becomes.
Even if the US employment report is strong, should USD/JPY recover rapidly into the 159-yen range, we will prioritise intervention risk rather than trying to extend profits.
For dollar-long exposure, other currency pairs are easier to manage from a risk perspective.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF remains a priority market for next week.
If dollar strength and higher US yields continue, this pair is relatively likely to reflect that theme directly.
It does not carry the same intervention risk as USD/JPY.
Therefore, as long as US yields continue to rise, our basic approach will be to buy on dips.
However, if employment-related data weakens and US yields clearly turn lower, we will close the dollar-buying strategy for the time being.
EUR/USD
The basic approach in EUR/USD is to sell rallies.
The euro is not necessarily exceptionally weak on its own. Rather, the main driver of the decline is dollar strength.
European growth remains fragile, while the interest-rate differential continues to favour the dollar.
Therefore, as long as US yields remain elevated, rallies will be treated as potential selling opportunities.
However, if the US employment report invalidates the strong-dollar scenario, we will pause the sell-on-rallies strategy.
BTC
BTC is the main subject of reflection this week.
Losses were caused by entering long positions too early in anticipation of a rebound.
Next week, we will change our approach completely.
Rather than buying because a rebound appears likely, we will only consider buying after a rebound has been confirmed.
In particular, as long as US yields remain elevated, the environment is likely to remain unfavourable for BTC.
Instead of trying to pick the low, we will look for the following three conditions before considering a long position:
• A halt in the decline
• Higher lows
• A break above the previous rebound high
NZD
The same principle applies to the New Zealand dollar.
There is no need to buy something that is currently weak simply because it appears due for a rise.
We will avoid NZD longs, including NZD/CAD, as long as the NZ dollar’s relative weakness persists.
Until a trend reversal is confirmed, it will be treated as a weak currency.
Oil
In oil, we will prioritise the chart over a market view.
As a market that can move sharply on geopolitical risk and supply issues, it is difficult to determine direction in advance based on headlines.
Therefore:
If it is rising, maintain a buying bias.
If it is falling, maintain a selling bias.
We will prioritise this simple approach.
It is important not to become attached to the prior week’s trend or to our own positions.
Core Strategy for the Week
Next week, the basic principle will be:
Rather than forecasting the market, use the current relative strength and weakness as it is.
The priority order is:
- The direction of US yields
- Broad dollar strength or weakness
- The currency pair expressing that theme most clearly
- Trend confirmation after the US employment report
If dollar strength continues, we will focus on USD/CHF and EUR/USD.
If dollar strength breaks down, we will stop that strategy immediately.
We will not buy BTC or NZD simply because they appear cheap.
Even in a strong-dollar environment, we will avoid aggressively chasing USD/JPY higher because of intervention risk.
Final Scenarios
Next week presents a very clear split.
If US Employment Is Strong
Resilient employment
↓
Expectations of further rate hikes
↓
Higher US yields
↓
Continued dollar strength
In this case, we will prioritise dollar-buying opportunities such as USD/CHF.
If US Employment Is Weak
Slowing employment
↓
Reduced expectations of further rate hikes
↓
Lower US yields
↓
Unwinding of dollar strength
In this case, we will close the dollar-buying strategy for the time being.
The core principle for next week is:
Do not believe in dollar strength. Participate only while dollar strength is actually continuing.
This week’s mistake was anticipating a rebound in weak markets too early.
Next week, we will instead participate only while strong markets remain strong, and exit quickly when the flow changes.
We will prioritise current price action over forecasts.
Afterword: Building Small Improvements Over Time
In health, it is rare for one food alone to change everything dramatically.
For example, whole grains do not transform the body overnight.
However, replacing white rice with brown rice, white bread with wholegrain bread, or sugary cereal with oatmeal can gradually make a positive difference over time.
These small choices may help improve several areas, including body weight, cholesterol, blood sugar and inflammation.
The important point is not adding something new.
It is replacing something with a better alternative.
Trading is very similar.
When trying to increase profits, it is tempting to add new strategies, trade more frequently, or increase position size.
However, improving long-term results does not necessarily mean adding more.
Reduce low-quality entries.
Reduce forced counter-trend trades.
Avoid unnecessary positions.
Pause strategies that do not suit the current market environment.
Then direct capital towards higher-probability opportunities.
In other words, gradually replace bad trades with better trades.
One improvement may seem small when viewed against the entire account.
However, if we eliminate one unnecessary trade each week and steadily improve risk management every month, the result after a year can be very different.
Both health and trading can make dramatic methods look attractive.
But in reality, small improvements that can be sustained over time create the greatest difference in the end.
What matters in trading is not one major win.
It is gradually reducing poor decisions and gradually increasing the proportion of good ones.
That accumulation shapes the long-term equity curve.
Next week, rather than trying to force profits higher, the goal is to identify one trade that can be improved.
We want to value that steady process and continue trading calmly, without forcing the market.
