FX Options Analysis – June 25–26, 2026
Spot Reference Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1364
- USD/JPY: 161.72
- GBP/USD: 1.3179
- USD/CHF: 0.8112
- USD/CAD: 1.4232
- AUD/USD: 0.6899
- NZD/USD: 0.5644
- EUR/GBP: 0.8620
Thursday, June 25
EUR/USD
Expiries
- 1.1300 (EUR 1.8 billion)
- 1.1350 (EUR 780 million)
- 1.1375 (EUR 760 million)
- 1.1380 (EUR 630 million)
- 1.1410 (EUR 630 million)
- 1.1450 (EUR 850 million)
- 1.1460 (EUR 900 million)
- 1.1470 (EUR 700 million)
- 1.1475 (EUR 580 million)
- 1.1500 (EUR 2.9 billion)
Current spot: 1.1364
The dominant expiry is:
1.1500 (EUR 2.9 billion)
Additional sizeable expiries are clustered at:
- 1.1460 (EUR 900 million)
- 1.1450 (EUR 850 million)
With spot trading near the lower edge of the option cluster, the structure favors:
a corrective move toward the 1.1450–1.1500 area if dollar strength temporarily eases.
USD/JPY
Expiries
- 160.00 (USD 840 million)
- 160.35 (USD 640 million)
- 161.00 (USD 1.1 billion)
- 161.60 (USD 1.2 billion)
- 162.00 (USD 780 million)
- 162.50 (USD 620 million)
Current spot: 161.72
The largest expiry is:
161.60 (USD 1.2 billion)
Spot is trading almost exactly on top of the largest strike.
Option interest is concentrated throughout the upper 160s and lower 161s, making:
161.60 the primary pinning level.
On the upside, 162.00 remains the next important target.
GBP/USD
Expiry
- 1.3200 (GBP 800 million)
Current spot: 1.3179
With spot trading very close to the strike, the market is likely to gravitate toward:
1.3200.
NZD/USD
Expiries
- 0.5770 (NZD 560 million)
- 0.5780 (NZD 610 million)
Current spot: 0.5644
Although both strikes are above current spot, they could become upside objectives if the New Zealand dollar stages a corrective rebound.
EUR/GBP
Expiries
- 0.8595 (EUR 580 million)
- 0.8700 (EUR 560 million)
Current spot: 0.8620
Spot sits roughly between the two strikes.
This favors:
a 0.8600–0.8700 trading range.
Friday, June 26
EUR/USD
Expiries
- 1.1325 (EUR 1.8 billion)
- 1.1350 (EUR 1.9 billion)
- 1.1375 (EUR 1.4 billion)
- 1.1385 (EUR 860 million)
- 1.1400 (EUR 2.2 billion)
- 1.1410 (EUR 1.2 billion)
- 1.1425 (EUR 1.1 billion)
- 1.1450 (EUR 1.3 billion)
Current spot: 1.1364
The largest expiry is:
1.1400 (EUR 2.2 billion)
Other major strikes include:
- 1.1350 (EUR 1.9 billion)
- 1.1325 (EUR 1.8 billion)
With large expiries surrounding current spot, EUR/USD is likely to remain pinned within:
1.1350–1.1400.
USD/JPY
Expiries
- 160.00 (USD 760 million)
- 161.50 (USD 1.1 billion)
Current spot: 161.72
The key expiry is:
161.50 (USD 1.1 billion)
Given its proximity to spot, price action is likely to remain centered around the upper 161s.
GBP/USD
Expiry
- 1.3200 (GBP 550 million)
Current spot: 1.3179
The 1.3200 strike remains the dominant reference level.
AUD/USD
Expiry
- 0.6900 (AUD 720 million)
Current spot: 0.6899
Spot is almost perfectly aligned with the strike.
This creates ideal conditions for:
0.6900 pinning behavior.
NZD/USD
Expiry
- 0.5625 (NZD 600 million)
Current spot: 0.5644
The strike is extremely close to spot.
Trading is likely to remain concentrated around:
0.5625–0.5640.
EUR/GBP
Expiry
- 0.8700 (EUR 850 million)
Current spot: 0.8620
Although somewhat above current levels, 0.8700 could become an upside objective if the euro strengthens.
Overall Market Structure
The key option themes are:
EUR/USD
Thursday
- 1.1500 (EUR 2.9 billion)
Friday
- 1.1400 (EUR 2.2 billion)
USD/JPY
Thursday
- 161.60 (USD 1.2 billion)
Friday
- 161.50 (USD 1.1 billion)
AUD/USD
Friday
- 0.6900 (AUD 720 million)
Trading Perspective
EUR/USD
- Thursday: Watch for a corrective move toward 1.1450–1.1500.
- Friday: Expect 1.1350–1.1400 to act as the primary pinning zone.
- Range-reversion strategies appear more favorable than chasing breakouts.
USD/JPY
- Focus remains on 161.50–161.60.
- 162.00 remains the next upside objective.
- The option structure favors consolidation rather than a strong directional breakout.
GBP/USD
- 1.3200 remains the dominant magnetic level.
AUD/USD
- A 0.6900 pinning strategy appears most appropriate.
Summary
Thursday’s options board is dominated by EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 2.9 billion), making the 1.1450–1.1500 area the key upside target during any short-covering rally.
On Friday, the focus shifts lower, with a dense concentration of expiries between 1.1325 and 1.1450, led by the 1.1400 (EUR 2.2 billion) strike. This structure favors consolidation around the 1.1350–1.1400 region.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains supported by significant option interest around 161.50–161.60 on both days, suggesting that the pair is likely to remain range-bound in the upper 161.00s, with 162.00 acting as the next important upside reference level.
