US Jobs Report Takes Center Stage as USD/JPY Continues Its Battle Around 160
Market Overview
The market’s attention has shifted almost entirely toward:
the US Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls).
USD/JPY remains just below 160,
while EUR/USD trades in the low 1.16s and GBP/USD remains in the mid-1.34s.
Major directional moves have yet to emerge.
Although Middle East tensions remain unresolved,
markets are gradually shifting their focus from:
“full-scale conflict”
toward
“continued negotiations.”
As a result, crude oil prices remain elevated but have stabilized, while investors increasingly wait for the employment data before taking larger positions.
Middle East Developments
Negotiations between the United States and Iran continue.
However, one of the biggest sticking points remains:
the issue of frozen Iranian assets.
According to reports:
- Iran has shown willingness to transfer enriched uranium to a third country
- The United States continues to reject the release of frozen assets
- Negotiations remain ongoing
Both sides remain engaged in discussions,
but a final agreement still appears some distance away.
As a result, markets have avoided becoming either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic.
Oil Market
The oil market has become relatively stable.
NY crude oil futures are currently trading in the:
$91–93 range.
Although reports emerged regarding an explosion at an oil terminal in Oman,
the event has not significantly disrupted broader market sentiment.
The risk of higher oil prices remains,
but for now the market appears to view it as:
“a manageable risk.”
Equity Markets
Equities have entered a modest correction phase.
Particularly in South Korea,
discussion surrounding AI profit-sharing policies has weighed on sentiment,
sending the Korean Composite Stock Price Index down more than 5%.
Given that AI-related stocks have been the primary driver of recent gains,
profit-taking activity has increased.
US equity futures have also softened,
reflecting position adjustments ahead of the employment report.
The US Dollar
Dollar selling dominated the London session.
The US Dollar Index moved lower,
while the US 10-year Treasury yield declined from:
4.47% to 4.45%.
As a result:
- EUR/USD rose to 1.1644
- GBP/USD climbed to 1.3470
The move appears to be driven primarily by position adjustment ahead of the jobs report rather than the beginning of a major dollar downtrend.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains trapped just below 160.
During the Tokyo session, the pair briefly rose to:
160.04
before retreating toward:
159.90
Despite broader dollar selling,
yen buying has remained limited.
The reason is that several competing forces continue to coexist:
- US–Japan interest-rate differentials
- Yen carry trades
- Intervention concerns
As a result,
USD/JPY remains locked within the:
upper-159 to 160 range.
Today’s Main Event
US Employment Report
Market Expectations
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Forecast: +88,000
Previous: +115,000
Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3%
Previous: 4.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month)
Forecast: +0.3%
Previous: +0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year)
Forecast: +3.4%
Previous: +3.6%
The key question is:
How much is the labor market slowing?
A significantly stronger-than-expected report would likely support further dollar buying.
A weaker-than-expected report could trigger broader dollar selling.
More important than the initial reaction may be whether the move continues through the New York session.
Key Themes to Watch
1. US Employment Report
Today’s most important event.
Likely to determine the market’s next directional move.
2. USD/JPY and the 160 Level
Will the pair finally break above 160?
Or will the level once again hold?
3. FX Intervention Risk
Intervention concerns increase sharply above 160.
4. Middle East Developments
Will negotiations progress?
Or will military tensions escalate again?
5. Equity Market Correction
Will profit-taking in AI-related stocks expand into a broader market correction?
Summary
The market is currently in:
“wait-and-see mode ahead of the US Employment Report.”
While Middle East tensions remain unresolved,
investors have become somewhat less concerned about a full-scale conflict scenario.
As a result:
- USD/JPY remains near 160
- EUR/USD remains in the 1.16 area
- GBP/USD remains in the 1.34 area
All three major pairs are effectively consolidating.
Tonight’s US jobs report could become the key turning point that determines whether the market moves toward:
continued dollar strength
or
a broader dollar correction.
