Dollar/Yen Plunges Again as Intervention Fears Return | Stocks Rally, Oil Falls, but Dollar Remains Unstable
■ Market Overview
Risk-on sentiment continued across global markets.
- S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all hit fresh record highs
- Oil prices fell below $100
→ Strong equities + lower oil reinforced broader risk appetite
However, the FX market told a completely different story.
USD/JPY plunged from the upper 157s to 155.04.
→ Markets quickly revived speculation of direct intervention by Japanese authorities.
■ FX Movement
- USD/JPY: upper 157s → sharp drop to 155.04 → rebound into 156s
- Dollar Index: 98.34 → 97.79
→ Intervention fears + Middle East peace optimism triggered renewed dollar selling.
■ Core Market Structure
“Even in risk-on conditions, USD/JPY remains a special-case market.”
Normally:
- Rising stocks → weaker yen
- Falling oil → stronger yen
But now:
- Intervention risk → forced yen appreciation
→ USD/JPY alone is experiencing abnormal volatility.
■ Middle East Situation
- Donald Trump reportedly halted escort operations
- Axios reported that the US and Iran are nearing an MOU agreement
→ Oil dropped sharply
→ Markets priced in easing Middle East tensions
However:
- Iran’s confrontational stance remains intact
- Full stabilization is still far from guaranteed
■ Key Focus (Critical)
- Selling pressure near 156.50
- Possibility of additional intervention
- Progress in Middle East negotiations
- US ADP Employment Report
■ Scenarios
① Peace expectations continue
→ Oil declines further
→ Dollar weakens further
→ USD/JPY upside remains capped
② Intervention continues
→ 157 area remains heavily defended
→ Nervous range trading persists
③ Middle East tensions flare up again
→ Oil rebounds
→ Dollar buying returns
■ Strategy Points
- Chasing longs above 157 remains dangerous
- Watch the speed of post-intervention rebounds
- Oil and geopolitical headlines remain the top drivers
■ Summary
The current market is:
“Stocks are optimistic, but USD/JPY remains on high alert.”
- Risk-on sentiment no longer automatically means yen weakness
- Intervention risk is now a permanent market factor
→ The most important themes are:
Intervention levels and Middle East peace developments
