🗞️ Lunar New Year Holiday & U.S. Market Closure — Watching the BOJ Meeting
🎯 Today’s Theme
Monitoring the content of the meeting between
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda,
while trading under reduced liquidity conditions.
Today:
🇨🇳 China: Lunar New Year holiday begins
🇺🇸 United States: Presidents’ Day (equity and bond markets closed)
With major markets shut and liquidity thinning,
the yen is showing modest corrective movement.
🇯🇵 Japan: Soft GDP → Yen-Selling Bias
This morning’s preliminary Q4 GDP:
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Annualized QoQ: +0.2%
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Forecast: +1.6%
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Previous: –2.6%
While growth returned to positive territory,
the figure significantly missed expectations.
As a result:
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Early rate-hike expectations slightly receded
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The yen became less attractive for buying
🏛️ Prime Minister Takaichi × Governor Ueda Meeting
The meeting took place.
Governor Ueda’s comments:
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“A regular exchange of views.”
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“No specific policy requests were made.”
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“No concrete discussion.”
👉 The market’s concern about direct political pressure on monetary policy was not confirmed.
Following the remarks:
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USD/JPY briefly rose to 153.46,
now holding near 153.40
Cross-yen pairs also moved weaker in yen terms:
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EUR/JPY: 182.07
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GBP/JPY: 209.46
💵 U.S. Dollar Index
With U.S. markets closed, movement is limited.
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Range: 96.875 – 97.017
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Current: 96.95 (+0.03%)
The modest USD/JPY rise is supporting the index.
🌏 Characteristics of Today’s Market
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Asian participants largely absent due to Lunar New Year
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U.S. equity and bond markets closed
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No major U.S. economic releases
👉 Price action is technically driven rather than fundamentally driven.
🧭 Market Environment Summary
✔ Post-CPI dollar decline has paused
✔ Weak GDP reduces immediate yen-buying catalysts
✔ BOJ meeting produced no surprises
✔ Thin liquidity increases exaggerated price-move risk
📌 Short-Term View
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The 152 level appears to be near-term support
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Sustained break above 153.50 could strengthen recovery bias
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However, chasing moves in thin conditions carries elevated risk
Fundamentals are limited,
yet range expansion remains possible.
A day prone to exaggerated swings,
with direction still lacking conviction.
