Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

U.S. Employment Data in Focus Again Today

U.S. Employment Data in Focus Again Today

— Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Ahead, With Eyes on Tomorrow’s U.S. Jobs Report

This week, the market’s initial reaction to the Venezuela-related crisis has largely run its course.
Crude oil and precious metals have shifted into a corrective phase, and the post-crisis surge in:

  • Safe-haven buying

  • Risk-off flows

has temporarily subsided.
Market attention is now clearly turning toward tomorrow’s U.S. employment report.

◆ Review of Yesterday’s U.S. Labor Indicators — Mixed Signals

ADP Employment Report (December)

  • Actual: +41k

  • Forecast: +50k

  • Prior: -32k, revised up to -29k

→ Below expectations, but not as weak as the previous reading.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

  • Headline index: Improved

  • Employment component: 52.0 (prior 48.9)

→ Service-sector employment returned to expansion territory.

JOLTS Job Openings

  • Actual: 7.146 million

  • Prior: 7.670 million

→ Hiring demand continues to slow.

👉 Overall, the data painted a mixed picture — neither clearly strong nor clearly weak.

◆ Today’s Focus: U.S. Employment-Related Data

Against this uncertain backdrop, the following indicators are due today:

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

  • Forecast: 212k

  • Prior: 199k

→ A modest deterioration is expected after recent strength.

U.S. Unit Labor Costs (Q3)

  • Forecast: -0.1%

  • Prior: +1.0%

→ Slowing wage-cost pressures are anticipated.

None of today’s releases are expected to signal a renewed surge in labor market strength.

◆ Broader Market Context

At this stage:

  • No decisive data has emerged to shape expectations for tomorrow’s jobs report

  • The initial Venezuela-driven risk reaction has faded

  • Market conditions remain prone to corrective pressure

Going forward, markets are likely to trade while watching:

  • Potential equity market pullbacks

  • A pause in the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields

◆ Ahead in Overseas Markets: A Broad Lineup of Data

United States

  • Challenger Job Cuts (December)

  • Trade Balance (October)

  • Labor Productivity (Q3, preliminary)

  • Wholesale Inventories (October, final)

◆ Survey-Based & Inflation Expectation Indicators

  • UK DMP Inflation Survey (December)

  • U.S. NY Fed Inflation Expectations (December)

That said, markets broadly believe:

The Fed’s policy focus has shifted from inflation toward employment.

As a result, tomorrow’s U.S. employment report remains the single most important event.

◆ Speaking Events

  • Swiss National Bank minutes (Dec. 11 meeting)

  • Fed Governor Mester: TV appearance and speech

◆ London Session: Dollar Index Edges Higher

The dollar index continues to post modest daily gains.

  • Early London high: 98.823

  • Prior New York close (98.684) acting as support

  • Re-testing the 200-day moving average (98.857)

Dollar Index: 98.80 (+0.11 / +0.11%)

From a technical perspective, the near-term focus is whether the index can decisively break above the 200-day moving average.

🔎 Summary

  • Venezuela-driven risk premium has faded

  • U.S. labor indicators remain mixed

  • Today’s data are a “warm-up,” with tomorrow’s jobs report the main event

  • Dollar Index is testing its 200-day moving average

More Insights