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💹 Liquidity Thins on U.S. Black Friday

💹 Liquidity Thins on U.S. Black Friday

— CME outage halts parts of trading while Europe faces a data-heavy session led by Germany and France

【1】Lower Liquidity on U.S. Black Friday

Following yesterday’s full U.S. Thanksgiving holiday,
today is Black Friday, with shortened U.S. trading hours.

  • Many traders are off on holiday

  • Liquidity is thin and price action is constrained

  • Fresh catalysts are limited → light, directionless trading likely

On top of that, a CME data center outage has occurred:

  • Trading in many commodity contracts has been suspended

  • The EBS FX platform, a core piece of FX infrastructure, is also down
    → Overall market conditions are extremely challenging for execution

After systems come back online,
there is a risk of temporarily elevated volatility as orders are rebalanced.

【2】European Session: Data Rush Focused on Germany & France

While the U.S. side is starved of catalysts, Europe is packed with data.

■ France

  • Real GDP (final, Q3)

  • Flash CPI (Nov)

  • Consumer spending (Oct)

  • Producer Price Index (Oct)

■ Germany

  • Labor market data (Nov)

  • Flash CPI (Nov)

  • Import prices (Oct)

  • Retail sales (Oct)

■ Switzerland & Nordics

  • Swiss GDP (Q3)

  • KOF leading indicator (Nov)

  • Sweden GDP (final, Q3)

With inflation, labor, and GDP data being released simultaneously across core Europe,
FX moves in EUR, CHF, and Scandinavian currencies are likely to be more active than in USD.

【3】North American Session: LATAM Data Followed by Canadian GDP

During the North American hours, focus shifts to EM and Canada:

  • South Africa trade balance (Oct)

  • Brazil labor market data (Oct)

  • Various Mexican indicators

  • Canada GDP (Q3 and September)

With month-end factors in play, this turns into a clustered GDP day across multiple economies.

【4】Central Bank Speakers: Only Nagel on the Radar

  • Bundesbank President Nagel is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion.

Meanwhile, the Fed enters its blackout period starting tomorrow,
during which Fed officials are barred from commenting on monetary policy.

→ No Fed speak = even fewer fresh catalysts from the U.S. side.

✔ Summary

  • U.S. Black Friday + Thanksgiving → very few active market participants

  • CME outage → partial halt in commodities and FX infrastructure → extremely thin conditions

  • Europe, led by Germany and France, has the bulk of meaningful data → if anything moves the market, it will likely be Europe-driven

  • North America: aside from Canadian GDP, nothing truly decisive

Overall setup:

“Lack of catalysts × low liquidity → high potential for choppy, directionless volatility.”

👉 For short-term trading, it makes sense not to force trades,
and instead wait for how the market reacts to the European data before committing risk.

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