💹 Dollar Gently Rebounds in a Quiet Holiday Market
— With the U.S. shut for Thanksgiving, FX moves are dominated by position-adjustments. USD/JPY drifts lower with a heavy top.
【1】Thanksgiving Shuts Down U.S. Markets — Expect an Ultra-Quiet Session
Today’s central theme is simple:
U.S. markets are fully closed for Thanksgiving.
Stocks and bonds are shut, and tomorrow’s Black Friday will be a shortened session—effectively leaving U.S. traders absent for the rest of the week.
Most key data were front-loaded earlier this week, meaning:
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Thin liquidity
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Flow-driven moves
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Susceptibility to headline noise
A textbook holiday market.
【2】The “Rate-Cut Trade” That Drove Dollar Weakness Remains Intact
USD softness earlier this week was driven by several overlapping factors:
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December rate-cut odds remain elevated at ~85% (CME)
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AUD and NZD strength exposed the dollar’s relative weakness
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U.K. fiscal optimism boosted GBP buying
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European currencies held firm against the dollar
The structural backdrop for USD selling remains, even if today’s flow is dominated by consolidation.
【3】EUR Stuck in Choppy Range — Conflicting Forces in Play
This week’s EUR price action has been messy due to mixed signals:
Bullish factors
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Expectations that the ECB is done with early rate-cut pricing
Bearish factors
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Reversal flow after the sharp GBP rally
Result: EUR/USD is stuck in short-term, trendless swings, with neither side gaining control.
【4】USD/JPY: Heavy Above 158, Sliding After the Test
After probing 158, USD/JPY quickly hit a ceiling.
Reasons include:
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Re-emergence of BoJ December rate-hike speculation
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Intervention concerns at elevated levels
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Political pressure as labor unions warn “weak yen erodes wage gains”
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Persistent U.S. rate-cut expectations
In short: “Yen selling is no longer a one-way trade.”
However:
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Yen carry demand remains strong
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Dips into the 155s continue to attract buyers
Meaning: Deep declines are unlikely, but the pair faces mild downward pressure.
【5】London Session: Mild Dollar Rebound, GBP Under Pressure
Dollar Index
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Tokyo: dipped to the 99.40s
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London: rebounded to the 99.70s
A natural reaction after days of USD selling as European traders booked some profits.
GBP
After surging on the Autumn Budget news, GBP faced significant corrective selling today.
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GBP/USD dropped to 1.3210
EUR/USD
Pulled lower by GBP weakness, slipping toward 1.1580.
USD/JPY
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Tokyo low: 155.73
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Recovered to 156.30–40 in London
Stable compared to other FX moves.
【6】A Europe-Driven Day — Zero U.S. Data
With the U.S. offline, today’s market drivers come almost exclusively from Europe:
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German GfK consumer confidence
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Eurozone M3 money supply
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Confidence indicators
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Data from Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada
Though none carry the weight of U.S. releases — reaction will be limited.
【7】ECB Speakers Add Small Noise, Not Trend
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ECB Minutes
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Villeroy (France)
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De Guindos (Vice President)
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BoE’s Greene
These may cause micro-moves but are unlikely to drive major FX trends.
✔ Summary: Dollar Rebounds Slightly, but Trend Signals Are Muted
Key takeaways:
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U.S. market holiday → Extremely low liquidity
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No new catalysts today
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Rebound driven mainly by profit-taking after earlier USD weakness
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GBP softens after its surge
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USD/JPY reactive to headlines but unlikely to trend decisively
🎯 Today’s market theme summarized:
