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💹 A Quiet yet Turbulent Start to the Week — A Rare Market Setup Where Both Yen and Dollar Are Sold

💹 A Quiet yet Turbulent Start to the Week — A Rare Market Setup Where Both Yen and Dollar Are Sold

[1] Equities: A Modest Rebound, but the “Heavy Atmosphere” Remains

Asian markets opened the week with a mild rebound,
and U.S. equity futures are holding in positive territory.
On the surface, conditions look calm — but investor sentiment remains unsettled.

Last week’s declines were too large to be dismissed as mere profit-taking.

  • Nasdaq: -2.7% (weekly)

  • Nikkei: -3.5%

  • European stocks: broadly down over 3%

  • Bitcoin: gave up much of its November gains in a sharp pullback

November is also a period of active fund rebalancing,
so it’s hard to say the “rush-to-exit selling” has fully stopped.

➡ Equities could still see wide swings again this week.

[2] Major Events Later This Week: Thanksgiving & Black Friday

The U.S. will enter a crucial part of the year-end shopping season:

  • Thu — Thanksgiving

  • Fri — Black Friday

Market interpretation is straightforward:

  • Weak results → slowing consumption → recession fears → risk-off

  • Strong results → resilient consumption → equity gains → yen selling

These two days could effectively determine the tone of December trading.

➡ Expect a quiet first half of the week — the real action begins later.

[3] FX: Yen Sold, Dollar Sold — A “Twisted Market Structure” Emerges

■ Tokyo Session: Almost No Direction

  • USD/JPY: hovering in the mid-156s

  • EUR/USD: 1.15 low

  • GBP/USD: 1.31 level

Nervous trading but no clear trend.

■ London Open: The Mood Flips Suddenly

As European equities rebounded at the open,
markets shifted into an unusual pattern of “risk-on yen selling” and simultaneous dollar weakness.

● Cross-yen pairs surged across the board

  • EUR/JPY: 180.80

  • GBP/JPY: 205.44

Risk appetite returned, driving broad-based yen selling.

● EUR/USD also jumped

  • Hit a high of 1.1534
    Dollar selling + euro buying lifted the pair strongly.

● USD/JPY

  • Climbed to 156.89

  • Then stalled around 156.70

➡ A rare “triple move”:
USD/JPY up, EUR/USD up, EUR/JPY even higher.

[4] Germany’s IFO Index: Weak Data, but the Euro Hardly Moves

November IFO came in soft:

  • Headline: 88.1 (below 88.5 forecast)

  • Expectations: notably weaker

  • Current assessment: slight improvement

Normally this would trigger euro selling —
but not today.

Euro remained firm, supported by:

  • Rebound in European equities

  • Ongoing dollar-weak tone

  • Strong euro-buying momentum from last week

These factors completely shielded the euro’s downside.

[5] Key Focus Today: ECB Speakers Flood the Calendar

A wave of euro-related comments is expected from:

  • Cipollone (ECB)

  • Lagarde (ECB President)

  • Nagel (Bundesbank President)

Additionally:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury auction

  • Earnings from Zoom, Keysight Technologies, etc.

Small shocks could easily emerge from the European to U.S. sessions.

✔ Summary: Outward Rebound, Inward Distortion

Today’s market behavior can be summarized in one line:

“Yen weakness and dollar weakness coexist, leaving cross-yen pairs as the strongest segment.”

The combination of:

  • Equity strength (→ yen selling)

  • Dollar weakness (→ euro buying)

  • Persistent yen selling pressure (→ stronger cross-yen)

creates a far more complex structure than it appears on the surface.

And the key takeaway:

➡ This rebound may simply be a reaction to last week’s crash — not a true trend reversal.
➡ Thanksgiving & Black Friday will be the “fate-defining” events of the week.

The most likely scenario:

A quiet start — and a volatile finish.

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