📰 U.S. Government Shutdown Averted — Market Focus Shifts to “Economic Data Resumption”
USD/JPY Pauses After Initial Surge
✅ Market Overview
The U.S. Congress has passed a temporary stopgap funding bill, officially ending the government shutdown following President Trump’s signature.
With this political risk now removed, markets have regained stability and risk-off sentiment has eased for the time being.
Equity markets traded firm throughout the session, with all major indices closing slightly higher.
However, after the initial rally, investors grew cautious — signaling that the search for the “next theme” has begun.
In FX, USD/JPY briefly broke above 155.00, but profit-taking soon followed, bringing the pair back into the upper 154 range.
The euro and pound were mildly supported by dollar weakness, though their upside potential remains limited.
💱 FX Market Focus — Data Gaps Fuel Uncertainty
With the government reopened, traders are now focused on the timeline for U.S. economic data releases.
The key question: When will the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report be published?
Some speculate “as early as tomorrow,” but the majority expect next week or later.
Adding to uncertainty, the White House hinted that “October’s major indicators may not be released.”
This has sparked speculation that negative data may be intentionally withheld,
prompting a renewed wave of dollar selling.
| Pair | Current | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 154.40 | Dollar selling persists; yen buying continues |
| EUR/USD | 1.1633 | Euro firm amid dollar softness |
| GBP/USD | 1.3164 | Cautious tone ahead of UK data; upside capped |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Key Data Cluster This Afternoon
The U.K. releases a series of major economic indicators starting from the London morning session.
Multiple reports are scheduled for 4:00 p.m. (Japan time),
raising expectations of higher volatility in GBP pairs.
| Indicator | Period | Forecast | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (Preliminary) | Q3 | ±0.0% | Growth stagnation in focus |
| Monthly GDP | Sep | ±0.0% | Further slowdown expected |
| Industrial Production | Sep | +0.2% | Slight positive projection |
| Manufacturing Output | Sep | +0.1% | Slower than previous month |
| Trade Balance | Sep | Deficit widening | Weak external demand a concern |
Depending on the results, rate-cut speculation for the December BOE meeting could resurface.
🗣 Upcoming Central Banker Speeches
| Name | Institution | Topic |
|---|---|---|
| Villeroy de Galhau | Banque de France | Acknowledgment of EU economic slowdown |
| Catherine Mann / Greene | Bank of England | Timing of potential rate cuts |
| Mary Daly | San Francisco Fed | Inflation and policy outlook |
| Neel Kashkari | Minneapolis Fed | Confirmation of policy hold stance |
| Antoine Tüdin | Swiss National Bank | Reaffirmation of FX intervention stance |
Their remarks could temporarily move rate futures and the U.S. dollar index.
🎯 Trading Strategies & Outlook
| Type | Strategy | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Sell on rebound near 154.80–155.00 | Take profit above key resistance |
| Medium-Term | Buy dips around 154.20–154.40 | Risk-on sentiment remains intact |
| Long-Term | Favor yen carry trades | BOJ rate-hike expectations pushed into next year |
🧭 Summary — Calm After the Storm
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The government shutdown issue is resolved, bringing temporary relief to markets.
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Focus now shifts to when U.S. economic data releases will resume.
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Short-term dollar weakness likely to persist amid uncertainty.
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The British pound may see increased volatility following key U.K. data.
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USD/JPY expected to trade within the 154.30–154.90 range for now.
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Markets are entering a “data void period”, awaiting the next clear catalyst —
likely to come from the return of the U.S. jobs report (NFP), which could redefine direction.
