✅ Risk Sentiment Softens in Equities, FX Awaits Data — ADP in Focus Today
📉 Equities: AI Profit-Taking & Monthly Rebalancing Weigh on Sentiment
Equity markets remain generally unstable in early November.
High-flying AI-related names are seeing increased profit-taking as investors grow cautious at elevated valuations.
Following the recent FOMC meeting, markets shifted toward the view that “a December rate cut is not a done deal.”
This led to a modest rebound in yields → pressuring equities.
Additionally, November is a portfolio rebalancing month, where fund flows tend to create crosscurrents, contributing to choppy price action.
🌍 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Ease Slightly, But Relief Is Limited
China announced a one-year suspension of the 24% tariff on select U.S. goods.
While this lessens headline geopolitical risk, market sentiment has not recovered, given ongoing equity adjustment pressures.
🕙 Key Focus Today: U.S. ADP Employment (October)
| Indicator | Time (JST) | Forecast | Previous | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment (Oct) | 22:15 | +30K | -32K | Wide uncertainty range (−20K to +70K) |
If ADP is strong:
→ U.S. yields rise
→ USD/JPY likely re-tests the upper 154s
If weak:
→ Growth concerns resurface
→ Risk-off + Yen buying could reappear
📈 Next Key Data: ISM Non-Manufacturing (00:00 JST)
| Index | Forecast | Previous | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Services PMI | 50.8 | 50.0 | A print below 50 would reignite recession fears |
-
Above 50 → supports USD
-
Below 50 → pressures equities & boosts JPY
🏦 Policymaker Comments Today
| Time | Speaker | Note |
|---|---|---|
| European session | ECB / BOE / SNB policymakers | Policy tone reaffirmation |
| 16:00 JST | Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Mimura | Possible yen verbal intervention risk |
💱 London Session Market Snapshot
U.S. 10-year yield edges higher to ~4.08% → mild USD-buying bias.
| Pair | Last | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 153.75 | Rebounds in line with U.S. yields |
| EUR/USD | 1.1479 | Euro remains under pressure |
| GBP/USD | 1.313x | Fiscal uncertainty caps pound upside |
✅ Summary: Market Direction Hinges on ADP — USD/JPY 154.00 is the Pivot
-
Equities remain unstable → risk-on momentum paused.
-
However, the structural U.S.–Japan rate differential continues to support USD/JPY.
-
Expect nervous, range-bound trade around 153.30–154.00 until data releases.
🎯 Trading Strategy Notes
| Phase | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Pre-Data | Avoid oversized positioning; keep trade size small |
| Initial Reaction | ADP’s first move often creates false breaks |
| Primary Trade Setup | Clarify direction using tomorrow’s ISM → Major move expected into Friday NFP |
