✅ Will the Dollar-Buying and Yen-Selling Trend Continue?
U.S. Officials’ Remarks Take Center Stage Tonight
💵 Dollar Strength and Yen Weakness Accelerate — USD/JPY Nears 153
The FX market’s dollar-buying and yen-selling momentum shows no sign of stopping, with USD/JPY now approaching the 153 level.
In just a few days, the pair has surged from the 147 yen range last week, driven by expectations that Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, fueling yen selling.
Her statement that Japan will “not rush to raise rates” has refocused attention on the U.S.–Japan rate gap, prompting investors to resume yen carry trades.
Meanwhile, EUR/JPY continues to post record highs day after day, underscoring the pervasive “sell-yen mode” dominating the market.
🏦 U.S. Government Shutdown Freezes Data — Officials’ Remarks Are the Only Guide
The ongoing partial U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, with the initial jobless claims report delayed for a second straight week.
With key economic statistics halted, markets are now highly sensitive to official commentary, political developments, and geopolitical risk.
Today’s data lineup is light, including:
Turkey industrial production (Aug)
South Africa manufacturing output (Aug)
Mexico CPI (Sep)
However, none are expected to have major market impact.
🗣️ Focus on Central Bank Remarks — Fed Officials Could Steer the Dollar’s Direction
A wave of central bank remarks is scheduled today across the U.S. and Europe.
In Europe, speeches are expected from:
Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France
Catherine Mann, Bank of England policymaker
Escribá, Governor of the Bank of Spain
Plus, publication of the ECB minutes (September meeting)
In the U.S., a lineup of top Fed officials will take the stage:
Chair Powell – opening address (pre-recorded, no Q&A)
Vice Chair Bowman – discussion with Treasury Secretary Bessent (focus on rate-cut stance)
Governor Barr – speech on the U.S. economic outlook (includes Q&A)
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari – joins Barr in a joint session
Among them, the dovish-leaning Bowman will be closely watched.
If her comments lean cautious or signal openness to easing, they could trigger a temporary pause in the dollar’s rally.
📈 Market Snapshot (London Session)
Currency Pair Current Level Comment
USD/JPY 152.95 “Takaichi trade” continues; supported by U.S.–Japan rate gap
EUR/JPY Record highs Yen weakness persists despite eurozone uncertainty
EUR/USD Around 1.1680 Dollar strength keeps upside capped
While the dollar-yen uptrend remains intact,
any verbal intervention from Japanese officials or dovish comments from the Fed could prompt a short-term correction (dollar softening, yen rebound).
📊 Summary: A “Politics and Policy” Market in the Absence of Data
The current FX market is increasingly driven by politics and policy rather than data.
With U.S. statistics frozen by the government shutdown and Japan’s new Takaichi administration reshaping monetary expectations, traders are navigating a “headline-driven” market.
Tonight’s remarks from U.S. central bankers will likely determine whether the dollar-buying, yen-selling trend continues —
or whether the market enters a temporary corrective phase.
