📊 Entering a New Month: Nervous Trading Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report
🔎 Key Focus This Week
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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep 27, Fri) – Forecast: +50k jobs. Unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will also be closely watched.
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A series of leading indicators before the NFP are likely to drive flow-based moves:
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Sep 24: JOLTS job openings, Consumer Confidence (forecast 96.0)
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Sep 25: ADP employment, ISM manufacturing PMI
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Sep 26: Initial jobless claims, factory orders
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Last week’s upward revision of U.S. GDP triggered dollar buying, but this week the focus shifts to consumer and labor data.
💱 FX Market Developments
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Today’s U.S. data: Pending home sales (low market impact).
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European session: UK consumer credit, Eurozone sentiment indices.
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Dollar Index extended its decline from the weekend, sliding from 98.18 (Tokyo AM) to 97.86 (London open).
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U.S. 10Y Treasury yield eased from 4.16% → below 4.14%, weighing on the dollar.
🇯🇵 Domestic Factors (Japan)
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BOJ Board Member Noguchi stated that “the need for policy adjustment is increasing.”
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This fueled speculation of further rate hikes, supporting yen demand.
🌍 Political & Event Risks
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U.S. budget negotiations remain uncertain. Without an agreement, the government faces shutdown risk from Oct 1.
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President Trump scheduled meetings with congressional leaders and Israel’s prime minister.
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Heavy central bank speaker calendar:
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ECB: Müller, Cipollone, Centeno, Nagel
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Fed: Waller, Musalem, Bostic
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ECB & Cleveland Fed joint conference – markets will watch for fresh views on inflation.
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📌 Summary
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With the turn of the month, liquidity tends to thin and volatility often picks up.
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Ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, markets are likely to remain nervous and headline-driven.
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USD/JPY is currently under pressure, but remarks from Fed/ECB officials and developments in U.S. budget talks could shift sentiment quickly.
