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🌍 Weekly Open: Flurry of Central Bank Comments, Dollar Strength Faces Correction

🌍 Weekly Open: Flurry of Central Bank Comments, Dollar Strength Faces Correction

Market Overview

At the start of the week, FX markets opened relatively calm. Scheduled data releases include:

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (Sep)

  • Hong Kong CPI (Aug)

  • Canada Industrial Product Prices (Aug)

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (flash, Sep)

These indicators are unlikely to significantly shift the global dollar trend. The main focus instead is on a series of speeches by Fed, ECB, and BOE officials, drawing attention just as last week’s strong dollar trend enters a corrective phase.

Early London Moves

  • USD/JPY: fell to 147.82, now hovering near 147.85

  • EUR/USD: rebounded from 1.1726 to 1.1769

  • GBP/USD: bounced from 1.3453 to 1.3503

  • U.S. 10-year yield: eased into the 4.12% range

The dollar rally that persisted through last week has paused, with markets adopting a “wait-and-see” stance ahead of official comments.

📊 Simplified FX Range Forecasts (Start of the Week)

Pair Range Forecast Key Focus Strategy Note
USD/JPY 147.20 – 148.80 Gov’t/BOJ intervention risk near ¥149. Fed speakers key Sell rallies; dips into ¥146s may attract bids
EUR/USD 1.1720 – 1.1800 ECB commentary, Eurozone confidence data Buy dips; if below 1.172, step aside
GBP/USD 1.3450 – 1.3550 UK PMI, BOE speeches, fiscal concerns Longs valid above 1.35
EUR/JPY 173.00 – 174.50 Balance of euro resilience vs. yen buying 173.00 support; consider sell into rebounds
GBP/JPY 199.00 – 201.00 UK gilt yields, BOE tone Buy dips below 200; take profit near 201

✅ Summary

Today’s FX market is expected to be headline-driven rather than data-driven.

  • The dollar’s advance is pausing, with volatility hinging on comments from Fed, ECB, and BOE officials.

  • USD/JPY at 149 remains the key watchpoint, with intervention fears capping upside.

  • Euro and pound may see wider swings depending on the tone of European and UK policymakers.

  • Investors will remain highly sensitive to the direction of U.S. yields and the rhetoric from central bankers.

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