💹 –11,250 USD | FOMC, BOJ, BOC | Weekly FX Report (Sept 8–12)
Net P/L: –11,250 USD
📌 Total Review
Losses widened due to adverse moves in crude oil shorts. However, late-week gold longs helped offset part of the drawdown.
Looking ahead, with major policy events in the U.S. and Japan, reducing positions before events and squaring up by week’s end will be critical.
🌍 Macro Environment Summary
- U.S.: A 25bp FOMC cut is a near certainty. Labor weakness and softer inflation bias the dollar lower. Focus is on the dot plot and Powell’s remarks.
- Japan: BOJ is expected to hold steady, but the leadership race and political backdrop keep JPY sentiment uncertain.
- Europe: ECB is on hold but tilting hawkish; EUR remains resilient.
- U.K.: Wage growth and CPI remain elevated; MPC is seen holding, but gilt market volatility is a risk.
- Canada: Weak inflation and soft jobs data revive BOC cut expectations.
- Australia & New Zealand: AU jobs and NZ GDP in focus; volatility likely as they track U.S./Japan events.
- South Africa: CPI outcome key for further rate cut decisions; ZAR remains flow-sensitive.
🗓 Key Events This Week
- Sept 16 (Tue): U.K. Employment, German ZEW, Canada CPI, U.S. Retail Sales
- Sept 17 (Wed): U.K. CPI, BOC Policy Decision, FOMC (dot plot & Powell press conference)
- Sept 18 (Thu): NZ GDP, AU Employment, BOE Policy Decision, U.S. Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
- Sept 19 (Fri): BOJ Policy Meeting & Press Conference, Japan CPI, U.S. Triple Witching
💱 Projected Ranges & Strategies (Sept 15 Week)
| Pair | Expected Range | Key Drivers | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 145.50 – 149.00 | FOMC dots, BOJ meeting | Sell rallies 147.8–148.8; cover at 146.5/145.5 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1650 – 1.1900 | ECB hawkish tilt vs dovish Fed | Buy dips 1.1650–1.1720; take profit 1.18/1.19 |
| GBP/JPY | 197.0 – 201.5 | U.K. CPI, QT guidance, gilts | Buy dips near 198; TP near 200 |
| CAD/JPY | 105.0 – 108.5 | CPI, BOC decision | Short 107.5–108.5; cover in 105s |
| AUD/JPY | 96.5 – 98.8 | Jobs, RBA commentary | Sell rallies 97.8–98.8; buy dips 96.5–97.0 |
| NZD/JPY | 85.0 – 87.0 | GDP, RBNZ easing bias | Bias to sell rallies; beware squeeze if GDP strong |
🪙 Gold (XAU/USD)
- Bias: Uptrend intact on dollar weakness and lower yields.
- Range: Support 3520 / 3550; Resistance 3600 / 3625 / 3650
- Strategy: Buy dips at 3550–3520; TP 3600 → 3625 → 3650; stop below 3485.
⚠️ Risk Scenario
If the FOMC proves unexpectedly hawkish (fewer cuts signaled), the dollar could spike higher.
→ In this case, scrap USD/JPY sell-on-rally stance and temporarily shift to dip-buying.
📜 Afterword | “Markets and Smartphones — Both Can Be Harmful If You Sit Too Long”
Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.
I came across an interesting study: people who linger on the toilet while scrolling their phones face a 46% higher risk of hemorrhoids. The reason? Sitting too long restricts blood flow and increases venous pressure.
It struck me that traders and analysts, often glued to screens for hours, face similar risks.
The simple solutions apply both to health and trading:
- Eat enough dietary fiber
- Stay hydrated
- Move regularly
- Avoid wasting time on “idle scrolling”
Just like in markets, focus on key moments instead of staring endlessly. By reducing unnecessary stress and staying disciplined, you protect both your capital and your health.
Next week promises heightened volatility with major policy events. Let’s keep our minds sharp and bodies balanced.
Wishing you successful trades — and a healthy week ahead.
See you next week!
