📊 Focus on U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision — Dollar Selling Pressure Persists Amid Nervous Market
A key event for the U.S. labor market is approaching.
Later today, the annual benchmark revision of U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be released. Last year, the data was revised down by roughly 820,000 jobs, shocking the market. This year, another sharp downward revision is expected, with a median forecast of –700,000 jobs. Estimates range widely from –400,000 to –1,000,000. Depending on the outcome, the dollar could face renewed turbulence.
💱 Foreign Exchange Market Developments
In Tokyo trading, dollar selling and yen buying dominated.
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USD/JPY dropped sharply from the 147 level to 146.36, triggered by reports suggesting the Bank of Japan may not rule out a rate hike this year despite political turmoil.
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EUR/USD climbed into the upper 1.17s, breaking above its August highs.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to its lowest since July 24, hovering near 97.25. Although it briefly rebounded to 97.51 in early London trade, renewed selling pressure pushed it back toward 97.28.
🌍 European Political Risk
In France, the government failed to win a parliamentary confidence vote, raising the prospect of collapse. This has fueled expectations of long-term bond selling. While the euro has shown resilience against the dollar, political instability could limit its upside, especially alongside movements in European equities.
📅 Key Events Ahead
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Sept 9: U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision
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Sept 10: U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index)
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Sept 11: U.S. CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, ECB Governing Council meeting
📝 Summary
Market attention is firmly on today’s U.S. jobs revision. If the results fall within expectations, the dollar could see short-covering as prior pricing unwinds. But if the weakness proves deeper than anticipated, dollar selling and yen buying could accelerate, potentially pushing USD/JPY below 146. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains in an uptrend, with focus shifting toward upcoming U.S. inflation data and the ECB meeting.
💹 Simplified Range Table (as of Sept 9)
| Pair | Support Range | Resistance Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.00–146.30 | 148.50–149.00 | Further selling on jobs revision could test below 146. Intervention watch at 149–150. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1650–1.1680 | 1.1740–1.1800 | Dollar weakness supports gains, though French political risk weighs. |
| GBP/JPY | 197.0–197.5 | 200.0–201.0 | U.K. fiscal worries cap upside; 198 zone as pivot. |
| CAD/JPY | 105.5–106.0 | 108.0–108.5 | Dependent on Canadian jobs data; weak print could retest 105s. |
| AUD/JPY | 94.0–94.5 | 97.0–97.5 | Awaiting RBA minutes and Chinese data; caution below 95. |
| NZD/JPY | 85.0 | 87.0 | Rate-cut expectations favor selling on rallies. |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 3520–3550 | 3600–3650 | Dollar weakness underpins uptrend; next key drivers are PCE and jobs data. |
