📊 ADP Employment Report (August) — All Eyes on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls
🌍 Market Overview
Tomorrow brings the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
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Last month’s NFP came in below expectations, with May and June revised sharply lower.
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This raised questions over the reliability of the data and had a major market impact.
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Focus now: Will the numbers align with forecasts this time, or will we see another major deviation?
Markets remain highly sensitive to labor-related data.
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JOLTs Job Openings (July): 7.181 million, a larger-than-expected drop → dollar selling followed.
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Weakness in labor indicators is immediately translating into USD selling pressure.
📊 Key Economic Data Today
United States
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ADP Employment Report (Aug): Forecast +68k (vs +104k prior).
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Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 230k (vs 229k prior, essentially flat).
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ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug): Forecast 51.0 (vs 50.1 prior).
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Employment sub-index: Expected 46.7 (vs 46.4 prior, modest improvement).
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👉 As a lead-in to NFP, these releases could trigger significant volatility.
Other regions:
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Switzerland: Employment report (Aug)
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UK: Construction PMI (Aug)
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Eurozone: Retail Sales (Jul)
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U.S.: Challenger Job Cuts (Aug)
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U.S.: Nonfarm Productivity (Q2, final)
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U.S.: Trade Balance (Jul)
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U.S.: ISM Services PMI (final, Aug)
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Canada: International Merchandise Trade (Jul)
🗣 Policy & Events
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ECB’s Cipollone speaks at the European Parliament Economic & Monetary Affairs Committee.
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U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds confirmation hearing for Fed Governor nominee Milan (CEA Chair).
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NY Fed President Williams speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook.
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U.S. weekly oil inventories also in focus for commodities.
✅ Trading Strategy Notes
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Base stance: Maintain a USD selling bias.
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If labor data shows further weakness → USD selling likely to accelerate.
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If stronger-than-expected numbers appear → risk of a short-term USD rebound.
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Most important: monitor bond yields in tandem with labor data.
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Falling U.S. yields → USD downside.
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Rising yields → temporary USD support.
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