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πŸ’± Market Notes & Strategy – U.S. JOLTs Job Openings

πŸ’± Market Notes & Strategy – U.S. JOLTs Job Openings

πŸ”Ή Market Overview

  • USD/JPY: Stalled just below 149. Currently mid-148s.
    β†’ Strong awareness of government/BoJ intervention zone (149–150).

  • Dollar Index (DXY): Rose to 98.6, then eased back to 98.2.

  • Pound Selling Leads USD Buying: U.K. fiscal concerns triggered sharp GBP/USD drop β†’ spillover into broader dollar demand.

πŸ“Š Key Events

  • Economic Data: U.S. JOLTs job openings, ISM Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, U.S. MBA mortgage applications.

  • Speeches: ECB President Lagarde, RBA Governor Bullock, Fed’s Musalem (St. Louis).

  • NY Session: Fed Beige Book release.

πŸ“ Trade Strategy Notes

  • Base View: Dollar buying wave is stalling ahead of NFP β†’ prefer β€œsell rallies” stance.

  • Short-Term Tactics: Follow yields/bonds closely, opportunistic contrarian trades.

  • Risk Watch: If USD/JPY approaches 149–150, intervention fears may trigger sharp reversals.

πŸ“ˆ Simplified Range Table (Guide Levels)

Pair Expected Range Commentary
USD/JPY 147.80 – 149.30 Upside capped by intervention risk; 25-day MA supports downside.
EUR/USD 1.1620 – 1.1720 CPI/ECB remarks may spark blips, but trend awaits NFP.
GBP/USD 1.3420 – 1.3520 U.K. gilt yield surge pressured GBP; range forming around 1.35.
EUR/JPY 171.50 – 172.80 Moves with Eurozone data, but underlying yen weakness provides support.
GBP/JPY 197.80 – 199.80 200 is psychological resistance; fiscal risks cap upside.
AUD/JPY 95.20 – 96.50 Dependent on Aussie data & RBA speech; bias toward selling rallies.
CAD/JPY 106.20 – 107.60 Sensitive to U.S./Canada data and oil; weak bias persists.
XAU/USD 3420 – 3475 Firm on dollar softness, but $3,500 remains strong resistance.

βœ… Summary

  • USD/JPY: Sell rallies near 149; watch for intervention risks.

  • EUR/USD: Range-bound; direction to be set by NFP.

  • GBP remains fragile on fiscal stress.

  • Cross-yen supported by underlying yen weakness, but capped at big round levels.

  • Gold remains a β€œbuy dips” play unless $3,500 is breached.

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