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💱 U.S. GDP (Revised) — Market Overview Report (Aug 28–29)

💱 U.S. GDP (Revised) — Market Overview Report (Aug 28–29)

📉 Market Snapshot

  • Focus today: U.S. GDP (revised) and weekly jobless claims.

  • FX market remains influenced by month-end flows, with overall direction still unclear.

📊 Expected Ranges by Currency Pair

Pair Range Notes
USD/JPY 146.80 – 147.80 Driven by U.S. data swings; consolidation around 147.00.
EUR/USD 1.1580 – 1.1700 European political risk weighs, but downside support remains firm.
GBP/USD 1.3400 – 1.3550 UK politics + post-CPI adjustments; stabilizing phase.
EUR/JPY 171.00 – 172.50 Largely range trading; direction tied to EUR/USD.
GBP/JPY 198.50 – 200.00 200 test possible, but risk of failure; strong downside support.
AUD/JPY 95.00 – 96.20 RBA cut speculation persists; yen selling provides support.
CAD/JPY 106.50 – 107.50 Uncertainty ahead of GDP; watch for break below 106.00.
ZAR/JPY 8.25 – 8.40 Supported by inflows, but vulnerable to risk-off sentiment.

🔹 Short-Term Strategy Scenarios

💵 USD/JPY

  • Scenario 1 (USD bullish): Strong GDP & claims → test 147.80.

  • Scenario 2 (USD bearish): Weak jobs data → risk of break below 146.00.

  • Strategy: Sell rallies in mid-147s; break below 146.00 = bearish continuation.

💶 EUR/USD

  • Scenario 1: Weak U.S. data → recovery into 1.17s.

  • Scenario 2: Strong U.S. data → slip back into low 1.16s.

  • Strategy: Favor selling rallies 1.1650–70; break below 1.1600 = add to shorts.

💷 GBP/JPY

  • Scenario 1: Risk-on mood → test 200, but prone to rejection.

  • Scenario 2: Downside anchored by 197.50 support.

  • Strategy: Buy dips near 198.00–198.20; take profit near 200.00.

🇨🇦 CAD/JPY

  • Scenario 1: Likely sideways tonight, waiting for GDP next week.

  • Scenario 2: Oil weakness + U.S.–Canada trade tensions → risk of break below 106.00.

  • Strategy: Sell rallies near 107.00; break below 106.00 = follow through lower.

🇦🇺 AUD/JPY

  • Scenario 1: Supported around 95 on China data stability.

  • Scenario 2: RBA easing expectations cap rebounds.

  • Strategy: Sell near 96; dip-buy around low 95s.

✅ Summary

  • Key trigger today: U.S. GDP (revised) & jobless claims.

  • Expect short-term volatility in USD/JPY & EUR/USD.

  • Bigger picture: Next week’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) likely to define the next sustained trend.

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