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📊 Daily Trade Strategy & Technical Analysis — August 21–22, 2025

📊 Daily Trade Strategy & Technical Analysis — August 21–22, 2025

💱 Market Overview

  • Tokyo session remained directionless, with markets awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (tomorrow, Aug 22 evening).

  • Today’s focus: Eurozone/US PMI flash data & US jobless claims. However, moves are likely to be short-lived.

  • Base case: range-bound corrective trading until Powell.

📊 Pair-by-Pair Ranges & Technicals

🇺🇸 USD/JPY

  • Expected Range: 147.20 – 148.50

  • Moving Averages: 21-day = 147.80 (support), 200-day = 145.20 (medium-term support)

  • RSI (Daily): 62 → bullish bias, no overheating

  • Support / Resistance:

    • S1: 147.20

    • S2: 146.70

    • R1: 148.50

    • R2: 149.00

  • Strategy: Selling rallies just below 148.00/148.50 remains effective; bids likely emerge near 147.20.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD

  • Expected Range: 1.1620 – 1.1690

  • Moving Averages: 21-day = 1.1650 (pivot), 200-day = 1.1520 (long-term support)

  • RSI (Daily): 55 → neutral

  • Support / Resistance:

    • S1: 1.1620

    • S2: 1.1580

    • R1: 1.1690

    • R2: 1.1720

  • Strategy: Sensitive to PMI results. Break below 1.1620 could trigger stop-loss selling toward 1.1580.

🇬🇧 GBP/JPY

  • Expected Range: 198.50 – 200.20

  • Moving Averages: 21-day = 199.30, 200-day = 191.50 (major floor)

  • RSI (Daily): 58 → neutral to mildly bullish

  • Support / Resistance:

    • S1: 198.50

    • S2: 197.80

    • R1: 200.20

    • R2: 201.00

  • Strategy: 200.00 remains a key psychological barrier. Weak UK fundamentals → selling rallies favored.

🇳🇿 NZD/USD

  • Expected Range: 0.5800 – 0.5860

  • Moving Averages: 21-day = 0.5900 (capping upside)

  • RSI (Daily): 42 → bearish

  • Support / Resistance:

    • S1: 0.5800

    • S2: 0.5750

    • R1: 0.5860

    • R2: 0.5900

  • Strategy: RBNZ rate cut shock persists. Break below 0.5800 risks a slide toward 0.5750.

🇪🇺 EUR/JPY

  • Expected Range: 171.20 – 172.20

  • Moving Averages: 21-day = 171.70 (support)

  • RSI (Daily): 60 → bullish bias

  • Support / Resistance:

    • S1: 171.20

    • S2: 170.50

    • R1: 172.20

    • R2: 173.00

  • Strategy: A break below 171.20 could accelerate downside; upside capped around 172+.

📌 Key Takeaways

  • Overall: Range adjustment mode → Powell’s speech tomorrow is the true catalyst.

  • USD/JPY: Sell rallies into 148.00/148.50; buy interest around 147.20.

  • EUR/USD: Watch 1.1620 — break lower = USD strength acceleration.

  • Cross-yen pairs (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY): Upside heavy → sell on rallies remains preferred.

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