💹【FX Market Flash】USD/JPY Stalls Below 150 After FOMC – Focus Shifts to PCE Inflation Data
✅ FOMC: As Expected, Fed Holds Rates; Dollar Gains Limited
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected. Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, stating that the Fed is still “waiting for clear evidence of disinflation.”
Following the decision, USD/JPY briefly rose to 149.54, but later pulled back to 148.59 during Asian hours as the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and weak equity performance weighed on the dollar.
The BoJ revised its inflation forecast upward for FY2025 but remained cautious about additional rate hikes. Governor Ueda’s dovish tone triggered a yen sell-off, pushing USD/JPY back to 149.99, though the 150.00 mark continues to act as strong psychological resistance.
✅ Key Focus Now: July 26 PCE Inflation Data
With the FOMC behind us, market attention now turns to the core inflation benchmark – the PCE Price Index, due Friday, July 26.
| Indicator | Market Forecast | Previous | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (YoY) | +2.5% | +2.4% | In focus after CPI recently rose to +2.7% |
| 🇺🇸 Core PCE (YoY) | +2.7% | +2.7% | Whether inflation remains “sticky” is the key |
→ A stronger-than-expected reading could make a break above 150.00 more likely.
→ Weaker data may lead to a short-term correction in the dollar.
✅ Market Snapshot: Dollar Leads, Yen Volatile After FOMC
| Currency Pair | Current Level (approx.) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ~149.80 | Yen selling continues post-BoJ, but 150 remains key barrier |
| EUR/USD | ~1.1450 | Holding above 1.1400; selling momentum has paused |
| EUR/JPY | ~171.50 | Euro gains and yen weakness fuel rebound in cross-yen |
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USD/JPY trading in a nervous 148.50–150.00 range
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EUR/USD finding strong support at 1.1400
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Yen broadly weaker, cross-yen pairs recovering
✏️ Summary: The Real Volatility May Be Yet to Come
While the FOMC is out of the way, the true triggers may still lie ahead:
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PCE inflation report due Friday
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Employment Cost Index and Fed speakers returning to spotlight
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USD strength remains the underlying trend, but a short-term correction is possible depending on PCE outcome
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Post-BoJ “Japan sell-off” and domestic political concerns could reignite yen weakness
