[Weekly Profit: +$71,939] Market Shaken by Fed Chair Ouster Rumor & Next Week’s Key Drivers
Trading Summary (July 14–18, 2025) & Outlook for July 21 Week
✅ Weekly Performance
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Net Profit: +71,939 USD
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Main Driver: Successful crypto buying during the risk-on rebound
🔍 Week in Review
This week saw heightened volatility after reports that Fed Chair Powell could be dismissed, triggering sharp moves in FX markets. However, the subsequent denial by former President Trump restored stability, and the dollar regained its strength.
Additionally, strong U.S. retail sales data supported investor sentiment, fueling a risk-on recovery. Timely entry into the crypto market significantly boosted overall returns.
📊 Market Outlook for the Week of July 21
USD/JPY
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Key Factor: Japan’s Upper House election (July 20)
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If the ruling coalition loses seats → expectations for tax cuts could lift equities & weaken JPY
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If results are stable → risk of yen short-covering
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Market Note: Tokyo markets closed on July 21 for Marine Day → thin liquidity & volatility risk
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Policy Outlook: Both the Fed (FOMC July 30–31) and BOJ (Aug 1) expected to maintain current stance → yen weakness bias remains
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Risk: Renewed uncertainty over Fed leadership could affect dollar confidence
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Event to Watch: Powell speaks at a conference on July 22
EUR/USD
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ECB Meeting: Likely to pause rate cuts
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Market Sensitivity: Lagarde’s comments will guide expectations for future easing
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Key Drivers: U.S. tariff policy progress & U.S. long-term yields
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EU Data Highlights:
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HICP Revision (July 17)
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ZEW Economic Sentiment (July 18)
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GBP/JPY
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Focus: July PMI (manufacturing & services), June Retail Sales
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Backdrop:
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CPI surprised to the upside recently, but rising unemployment keeps BOE cut expectations alive
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Fiscal risks and ongoing U.S.–UK trade issues remain key headwinds
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CAD/JPY
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Key Data: Canadian Retail Sales (July 24)
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Biggest Risk: Outcome of U.S.–Canada trade negotiations
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If tariff removal talks stall → CAD could face selling pressure
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Coordination with Mexico may provide partial support
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AUD/JPY
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Pressure Points:
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Weak labor data strengthens expectations of another RBA cut
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Futures pricing in 25 bps cut in August
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Key Event: Q2 CPI (July 30)
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Bias: Rate-cut sentiment dominates → sell on rallies remains favored
✅ Summary
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USD/JPY: Multiple event risks (Upper House election, Powell’s speech, U.S. trade policy) → overall bias toward yen weakness.
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EUR/USD: Sensitive to ECB and U.S. yield dynamics → choppy trade expected.
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GBP/JPY: Domestic indicators and fiscal concerns cap upside potential.
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CAD/JPY: Watch trade negotiations for directional cues.
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AUD/JPY: Policy easing expectations weigh on AUD → selling pressure likely to persist.
📝 Afterword | In Trading as in Beauty, the Basics Are Everything
Thank you for reading this week’s FX Weekly Report.
The other day, I came across an article about maintaining healthy hair, skin, and nails. It boiled down to three simple principles:
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A balanced diet
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Quality sleep
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Daily care, combined with regular professional maintenance
When these foundations are in place, beauty takes care of itself. On the other hand, chronic stress or an erratic lifestyle can do more damage than any luxury cosmetic can fix.
Reading this, I couldn’t help but draw a parallel to trading.
Instead of flashy techniques or extreme leverage, what truly matters is the foundation:
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Stick to your trading rules
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Practice strict risk management
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Take proper breaks when needed
Without this “core strength,” even the most promising market can quickly turn against you.
Today’s markets are full of volatility, driven by geopolitical risks and policy shifts. In such times, having a strong foundation allows you to stay flexible without breaking.
Just as there’s no “magic overnight beauty fix,” there’s no secret shortcut to instant trading success. Both require consistent effort and discipline. That’s what preserves your assets—just as it preserves your skin and hair.
As we head into next week, let’s keep focusing on the fundamentals and stay calm in our decision-making.
Wishing you a great weekend and profitable trading ahead.
