Dollar Strength Persists Amid Market Turbulence Triggered by Trump’s Comments – All Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales Today

Dollar Strength Persists Amid Market Turbulence Triggered by Trump’s Comments – All Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales Today

✅ Market Summary

Yesterday’s New York session saw significant volatility following a shocking headline suggesting Fed Chair Powell might be dismissed.
USD/JPY plunged from the 149 level to as low as 146.90 before rebounding sharply after former President Trump denied the report.
During Asian and European trading, the pair held firm in the 148.60–148.80 range, signaling persistent dollar-buying momentum.
The Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported by its 10- and 21-day moving averages, sustaining its bullish trend since early July.

✅ Key Event Today

U.S. Retail Sales (June)

• Consensus:

  • Headline: +0.1% MoM

  • Ex-Autos: +0.3% MoM

Market Scenarios:

• Above Expectations: Fed rate-cut bets decline further → stronger dollar buying

• Below Expectations: Temporary dollar selling → potential for short-term correction

Other U.S. Data:

• Import/Export Price Index

• Weekly Jobless Claims

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Speeches:

• Fed Governors Kugler, Cook, Waller

• San Francisco Fed President Daly

Corporate Earnings:

• Key releases: Netflix, PepsiCo, U.S. Bancorp

✅ Trading Strategies (Major Pairs)

💴 USD/JPY

• Current: Around 148.70, bullish dollar bias remains intact

• Technical Levels:

  • Support: 148.50 / 147.90

  • Resistance: 149.20 / 150.00

• Strategy:

  • Buy on dips

  • If retail sales beat estimates → aim for break above 149.20, add longs on confirmation

  • If retail sales miss → take quick profits below 148.20, re-enter near 147.80

💶 EUR/USD

• Current: Around 1.1690, bearish trend persists

• Technical Levels:

  • Support: 1.1650 / 1.1620

  • Resistance: 1.1720 / 1.1750

• Strategy:

  • Sell on rallies

  • Short near 1.1715–1.1720, target 1.1650

  • If retail sales disappoint → temporary spike toward 1.1750, but broader outlook favors dollar strength

💷 GBP/USD

• Current: Trading in the 1.3380s; weak rebound after soft UK labor data

• Technical Levels:

  • Support: 1.3350 / 1.3300

  • Resistance: 1.3430 / 1.3460

• Strategy:

  • Maintain sell-on-rally stance

  • Short near 1.3430, target 1.3350

  • Retail surprise could cause brief upside, but UK economic concerns cap gains

🇨🇦 USD/CAD

• Current: Sideways; limited impact from Canada CPI

• Strategy:

  • Favor buying dips

  • Buy near 1.3620–1.3630, target 1.3700

🇦🇺 AUD/USD

• Current: Around 0.6520, under pressure

• Strategy:

  • Stick with sell-on-rally

  • Short near 0.6550, target 0.6480

✅ Summary

• Dollar remains in a strong uptrend; U.S. Retail Sales is today’s key risk event

• USD/JPY: Buy on dips; EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Sell on rallies

• Watch for volatility around retail data release → position sizing and stop-loss discipline are critical