USD/JPY Shaken by U.S. Tariff Threats and Iran Talks
What -$63,923 Loss Revealed About the Next Tactical Move
🧭 Key Market Focus This Week: U.S. Tariff Notice (July 9) & FOMC Minutes
July 9 marks the deadline for the U.S. reciprocal tariff announcement.
President Trump’s mention of tariffs on Japan raises the likelihood of yen volatility.
In addition, the week is packed with risk events including the release of the FOMC minutes and U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations.
🔍 Currency Outlook & Strategy (Week of July 7)
💵 USD/JPY | Tariffs and FOMC Minutes to Test Dollar-Yen Direction
- July 9: Tariff deadline & FOMC minutes
- July 11: U.S. budget statement (focus on tariff-related revenue)
- U.S.–Iran talks: Outcome could trigger yen or dollar buying
📌 Strategy:
Look for short-term trades around events. Sell rallies in the 144.50–145.50 zone.
💶 EUR/USD | Euro Momentum Slows Near 1.20
- Key data: Eurozone May retail sales, German industrial production
- ECB VP warns that a rise above 1.20 could be “complicated”
📌 Strategy:
Focus on buying dips between 1.1750–1.1850, but consider taking profits above 1.19.
💷 GBP/JPY | UK Fiscal Anxiety and BOE Rate Cut Expectations Weigh
- Risk events: May GDP, withdrawal of fiscal reform proposals
- Added pressure from cabinet reshuffle rumors and political instability
📌 Strategy:
Sell rallies between 184.80–185.50. BOE rate cut expectations remain intact.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY | Canadian Dollar Eyes Trade Talks and Jobs Data
- Key issue: U.S.–Canada digital tax dispute resolution
- Jobs data may disappoint after weak PMI
📌 Strategy:
Expect sideways movement between 105.30–106.50. Negative surprises could push it below 104.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY | Rate Cuts Priced In, Surprise Depends on RBA Stance
- July 7–8: RBA policy meeting (rate cuts expected)
- Markets are pricing in 3–4 cuts this year
📌 Strategy:
A hawkish cut may trigger upside. Expect a battle between 97.80–99.30.
🗒 Weekly Strategy Notes
✅ Focus on USD/JPY and EUR/USD only
✅ Target spikes immediately before and after major events
✅ Begin the week with caution; wait for post-event direction
📣 Markets Are Bracing for “Crisis or Tariff Shock”
With risks piling up this week, forcing trades is risky. Stay calm and wait for only high-conviction setups—discipline will make the difference.
🌙 Afterword｜What Do You Do When You Wake Up in the Middle of the Night?
You glance at the clock and think, “Only a few hours left to sleep.”
The more you worry, the more awake you become.
That moment mirrors the hesitation of cutting losses in trading.
Staying in bed while unable to sleep is like holding onto a losing trade.
Sometimes it’s better to step away, breathe, and reset—just as you would in trading to regain composure.
In the U.S., techniques like the 4-7-8 breathing method, muscle relaxation, or white noise are recommended to help return to sleep.
Likewise, recovering from a loss or drawdown in trading requires the courage to step back and reset your mindset.
🧠 What Sleep and Trading Have in Common:
- Anxiety keeps both sleep and profit away
- Walking away creates space for the next opportunity
- Habits and structure lead to consistency
A sleepless night can teach traders something vital:
Sometimes, “doing nothing is doing something” in the market.
Let’s face the charts calmly again next week.
But first—may you sleep soundly tonight.
