+146,171 USD｜Riding the Wave of Middle East Ceasefire and Aussie Surge

+146,171 USD｜Riding the Wave of Middle East Ceasefire and Aussie Surge

🔻 Weekly Trading Performance (June 23–27)
Total P/L: +146,171 USD
Key Trades: Long AUD/USD, Short Crude Oil

The week began with heightened Middle East tensions triggering a risk-off sentiment. However, reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran quickly shifted market sentiment toward risk-on. Pre-positioned long trades in the Australian dollar and profit-taking on crude oil shorts paid off significantly, resulting in a strong profit for the week.

Key Risks Going Forward:

• Possible renewed sanctions or airstrikes on Iran by President Trump

• Market uncertainty over the July 9 deadline for “reciprocal tariff suspension”
  Sudden geopolitical developments may disrupt markets again—caution is warranted.

📊 Market Review (Price Action for the Week of June 23)

🔍 Currency Outlook (Week of June 30)

💵 USD/JPY

• U.S. jobs data and ISM (both manufacturing & services) are critical for July rate cut expectations

• Watch for comments from Fed officials and Powell’s stance

• Risk of renewed tariff announcements from Trump

• Speculation on the next Fed chair could trigger dollar weakness

💶 EUR/USD

• ECB Annual Forum (June 30–July 2) may spotlight stagflation concerns

• Eurozone HICP and PPI need to justify bullish sentiment

• Ongoing U.S.-EU tariff disputes may keep the dollar in control

💷 GBP/JPY

• Weak UK data strengthens the case for additional BoE rate cuts

• Focus on employment, retail sales, and revised GDP

• While dollar weakness may offer support, BoE dovishness caps upside

🇨🇦 CAD/JPY

• Volatile oil prices = directional uncertainty

• BOC on hold, but July rate cut back on radar

• CPI trends, trade tensions, and U.S. tax headlines could drive price action

🇦🇺 AUD/JPY

• Monthly CPI slowdown fuels rate cut expectations

• Yet, strong equities offer sentiment support

• Watch retail sales, building permits, and trade data

• AUD/USD could swing sharply based on U.S. tariff and budget news

🧭 Strategy Notes: Key Points to Watch This Week

• USD/JPY: High-volatility week; ISM, NFP, and tariff news may drive big moves

• EUR/USD: Can euro strength hold? Watch HICP and ECB tone

• GBP/JPY: If data continues to weaken, BoE rate cut bets will grow

• CAD/JPY: Direction tied to USD, oil, and Trump’s rhetoric

• AUD/JPY: Tug-of-war between rate cut pressure and equity support—could widen range

📉 Closing Note｜Why “Fasting Traders” Win — The Common Ground Between Dieting and FX

Were you disciplined with your trades this week?
Did you overtrade or chase losses emotionally?

Interestingly, this mirrors our eating habits.
Recent studies show intermittent fasting (IF)—time-restricted eating—can be just as effective as traditional calorie restriction.

🔄 3 Common Winning Principles in Diet & Trading:

1️⃣ Consistency is key:
Both IF and FX reward those who stick to their rules.

2️⃣ Overeating = Overtrading:
Too much food wrecks your health. Too many trades wreck your account.

3️⃣ Sustainability over perfection:
A “good enough” strategy you can follow long-term beats a perfect one you abandon.

💡 Notably, IF tends to have a higher adherence rate.
The same could apply to trading:

• “No trades after midnight”

• “Max 3 entries per day”
  Limiting your trading time may reduce waste and keep emotions in check.

📌 As former President Trump once said:
“You don’t have to quit ice cream—just cut back.”

Same goes for positions.
It’s not about stopping, it’s about controlling. That’s what winners do.

Let’s trade next week with the mindset of a “fasting trader”—
Disciplined, selective, and focused.