Trump’s Ceasefire Comment Triggers Reversal: USD Drops, Oil Plunges — Risk-On or Premature Relief?
💬 Market Reaction: “Crisis Mode” Pauses After Trump Remarks
On June 24, President Trump posted on social media that “Israel and Iran have agreed to a full and comprehensive ceasefire.” This statement immediately triggered a sharp reversal in market sentiment, shifting from risk-off to risk-on.
-
Oil prices: Reversed sharply from previous surge
-
FX market: USD selling accelerated; cross yen pairs rebounded on risk-on flows
-
Gold: Safe-haven unwinding led to downside pressure
Markets reacted directly to the headline, with sensitivity to Middle East developments remaining elevated.
⚠️ Uncertainty Over Ceasefire Credibility
Skepticism persists despite the announcement:
-
Israel claimed Iran violated ceasefire by launching missiles
-
No official confirmation of the ceasefire agreement yet
-
Status of Iran’s nuclear facilities remains unclear
-
Hormuz Strait blockade threat still looms
While the ceasefire comment prompted a pause in risk aversion, further geopolitical swings may quickly reintroduce volatility.
🗣 Powell Testimony in Focus
Later today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
-
Expected to reiterate that “current policy stance is appropriate,” aligning with the FOMC view
-
Trump continues to criticize the Fed for not cutting rates — pressure could influence tone
-
Traders should also prepare for a potential technical rebound in the USD following recent sharp declines
📊 Key Economic Data & Events Today
| Country | Event | Importance | Forecast/Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Ifo Business Climate (Jun) | ★★☆ | 88.0 (prev: 87.5) |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | CPI (May) | ★★★ | Crucial for inflation outlook |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | Current Account Balance (Q1) | ★★☆ | Focus on deficit scale |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | ★★★ | 99.8 expected (prev: 98.0) |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Apr) | ★★☆ | Insight into post-hike housing trends |
🗣 Key Central Bank Speeches Today
A busy schedule of speakers that could move markets:
-
Powell (Fed Chair) — testimony before Congress
-
Lagarde (ECB President)
-
Williams (NY Fed)
-
Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed)
-
Bailey (BoE Governor)
-
De Guindos (ECB Vice President) and others
Additionally, reports indicate President Trump may attend the NATO Summit in the Netherlands, where comments could reignite market volatility.
🎯 Trading Strategy Notes
-
Trump’s ceasefire announcement has fueled renewed risk-on sentiment (USD sell-off, oil decline, equities rebound)
-
Beware of potential ceasefire breakdowns or further retaliatory actions by Iran or Israel, which could trigger sharp reversals
-
Baseline scenario for the day:
-
USD weakness
-
JPY weakness
-
Oil downside
-
Equity strength
-
-
Key market trigger: Powell’s congressional testimony and USD’s response in the New York session
