📉 -10,691 USD | If U.S.-China Talks Collapse, Total Asset Sell-off Possible… June Market Hinges on “Statements”
✅ Weekly Performance Summary (May 26–31, 2025)
📉 Total for the Week: -10,691 USD
Overall, the week ended on a somewhat tough note. Caution is advised when trading gold heading into June.
The market leaned back into risk-off mode following President Trump’s statement: “China has completely broken the agreement.”
📊 FX Market Outlook (Week of June 2, 2025) | Currency Overview
💵 USD/JPY
Mixed sentiment around the U.S. court injunction against tariffs and uncertainty regarding appeals.
BOJ rate hike expectations resurfacing, backed by rising core CPI indicators.
A high-impact week with key U.S. data: ISM, JOLTS, ADP, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
▶ Outlook: Selling on rallies is expected to dominate. Watch for key battle levels around the 145 yen range.
💶 EUR/USD
Strongly influenced by U.S. data and tariff news, with limited buying interest in the euro itself.
Important eurozone data includes HICP flash estimate and revised PMI figures.
With ECB rate-cut speculation lingering, short-term trading will likely drive price action.
▶ Outlook: Range-bound trading likely to persist around the 1.13 level, with limited directional momentum.
💷 GBP/JPY
Mixed expectations around a UK-U.S. FTA; timing of tariff implementation remains in focus.
UK PMI revisions likely to have limited impact.
▶ Outlook: May see short-term upside driven by headlines or official comments, but the 195 yen level remains a heavy ceiling.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY
While the U.S. court’s tariff injunction supports CAD, concerns remain over potential appeals or new U.S. trade policies.
Key events include the June 4 BoC meeting and June 6 jobs data.
▶ Outlook: CAD likely to stay firm if BoC holds rates; a rate cut could trigger a temporary dip.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY
Domestic events to watch: GDP data, RBA meeting minutes, and trade balance.
Still, the spotlight remains on U.S.-China relations and global risk sentiment.
▶ Outlook: Upside appears limited; likely to remain directionless depending on external factors.
📝 Summary
USD/JPY faces a triple burden: tariff uncertainty, BOJ policy shifts, and dense U.S. data releases.
Cross-yen pairs also lack clear direction—caution is advised for short-term positions.
Early June may hinge on the timing of renewed U.S.-China negotiations—a single statement could flip the market tone.
📘 [Afterword｜A Trader’s Eye for Seasonality]
In both trading and dining, having an eye for what’s “in season” has never been more essential.
Fruits and vegetables are at their most nutritious and flavorful in season—
and the same can be said for currencies in the market.
In today’s fragile environment, where a single Trump quote or a shift in U.S.-China relations can shake the market,
traders must ask: “Which currency is in season now?” Failing to do so may mean getting stopped out before the position ripens.
Just as summer fruits like watermelon and peaches replenish the body,
identifying “cool-down” assets or currencies can help traders stay refreshed in volatile times.
This past week, the Canadian and Australian dollars—perhaps modest in appearance—stood out for their steady risk-reward balance.
Meanwhile, gold and the yen remain overheated by geopolitical risks—requiring precise short-term handling.
In both trading and health, the key is “no overexertion, seasonal awareness, and calm decision-making.”
That mindset might just be the winning strategy for this summer’s markets.
Let’s keep reading the market’s “seasonal cues” and aim for another fruitful week ahead!
