📅 Market Outlook | Tuesday, June 3, 2025
🌐 Market Overview
U.S. Tariff Risks Resurface: President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective June 5. The EU has hinted at possible retaliatory measures, fueling a risk-off sentiment.
U.S.-China Tensions Rise: The U.S. Defense Secretary made remarks on the Taiwan issue, prompting a strong reaction from China. Geopolitical risks are now back in focus.
Fed Commentary: Fed Governor Waller stated that “tariff-driven inflation will be temporary,” which has led to increased expectations of rate cuts and downward pressure on the dollar.
💹 FX Market Trends (Tokyo to European Hours)
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USD/JPY: Gradual decline from the mid-144s to the low 143s. Selling on rebounds is the preferred strategy.
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EUR/USD: Climbing from the low 1.13s to the upper range, driven by dollar softness.
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EUR/JPY: Weakening from the mid-163s, testing below 163. Yen strength dominates.
🧭 Key Events Today
🕐 Economic Indicators
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16:00–22:30: Final May PMI data for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S.
→ Watch for revisions from flash estimates. -
23:00: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
→ Previous: 48.7 | Forecast: 49.5 (Note: Readings above 50 may spark a positive market response)
🗣 Speeches & Remarks
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Fed Chair Powell: Remarks at IMF’s 75th Anniversary Conference
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Speeches from Dallas Fed President Logan and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee
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From the UK: BOE MPC members Greene and Mann will participate in a panel discussion
🧭 Trading Strategy (June 3)
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Focus on selling USD/JPY on rebounds, assuming continued risk-off sentiment.
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Whether the ISM crosses above 50 will be the key turning point during New York hours.
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Currency selection is crucial. The euro remains relatively firm, but could waver depending on PMI revisions.
