📉 [Dollar Weakness Pauses – But Is the Trend Still Intact?]
Bitcoin Maintains Bullish Momentum – Break Above $110,000 Could Accelerate Long-Term Trend
✅ Market Overview | Dollar Weakness Paused by Temporary Rebound, But Softness Resumes
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USD/JPY fell from the low 144s back to the low 143s.
→ Dollar buying briefly picked up in early Asia after reports that the U.S.–Japan finance meeting made no direct mention of FX levels.
→ However, falling U.S. yields and continued equity weakness revived USD selling. -
Weak demand in the U.S. 20-year bond auction remains a drag on sentiment, fueling persistent “U.S. selling” concerns.
→ U.S. equity futures saw a slight bounce but remain sluggish, keeping the broader risk tone cautious. -
EUR/USD rose as high as 1.1360 before entering a corrective phase, now stable in the low 1.13s.
→ Attention turns to today’s Eurozone PMI, where any improvement from the previous release may support the euro. -
EUR/JPY dropped from the 163s to the low 162s, reversing the earlier yen selling triggered by the U.S.–Japan meeting.
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GBP/USD is holding in the low 1.34s and may firm further alongside EUR strength.
→ A strong UK PMI could pave the way for another test of 1.3450.
📅 Key Economic Indicators & Events (Today)
| Region | Indicator/Event | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone, Germany, France, UK | Flash PMIs | Focus on both manufacturing and services |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (May) | Today’s key event – may bring renewed USD trend momentum |
→ With both European and U.S. PMIs due, markets could see sharp directional movement. Watch for USD-driven trend shifts.
📈 Strategy Points | Thursday, May 22, 2025
| Asset | Strategy | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Continue selling rallies | Heavy option barriers at 143.00 (expiring on May 23, 26, 28); key level to watch for a breakdown |
| EUR/USD | Buy on dips | If PMI beats, a move toward 1.14 is possible; market may shift to EUR-led direction |
| GBP/USD | Upside potential | UK PMI surprise could trigger a move to 1.3450; could also follow euro strength |
| BTC/USD | Stay long | Breakout above $110,000 marks a new record; buying remains dominant with minimal selling pressure |
| GOLD | Firm tone | USD weakness, Middle East tension, and bond market instability all support demand for safe-haven assets |
📌 Summary
Today is PMI day and a potential turning point for the U.S. dollar trend.
USD/JPY remains heavy above 144 – selling rallies remains effective.
Bitcoin continues its bullish breakout – surpassing $110,000 could mark a major acceleration in its long-term trend.
EUR and GBP could see the next leg higher, depending on today’s European data.
