📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of U.S. FOMC & U.K. MPC
While Tokyo remains closed today, markets in China, Hong Kong, and London have resumed, gradually restoring global liquidity. However, with major events such as the U.S. FOMC (early JST May 8) and Bank of England MPC (May 9) ahead, traders are expected to remain cautious, limiting active positions.
🌐 Market Focus: U.S. Tariffs & Trade Negotiations
Attention is also on the meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney, scheduled for 00:45 JST on May 7.
The trajectory of U.S. trade negotiations could spark volatile moves in both FX and equity markets.
💱 Asian Session Price Action (Limited Directionality)
| Pair | Price Range |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 143.56 → 144.28 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1280 → 1.1328 |
| EUR/JPY | 162.38 → 162.88 |
EUR/JPY remains firm, supported by euro-buying versus the pound. However, price action remains narrow overall, indicating a lack of strong direction.
📊 Today’s Key Economic Events (JST)
- 🇫🇷 France: Industrial Production (Mar)
- 🌍 Global Final Services PMIs (Apr):
France, Germany, Eurozone, U.K., U.S. - 🇪🇺 Eurozone: PPI (Mar)
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: Trade Balance (Mar)
→ Forecast: -$137.2B (Previous: -$122.7B) - 🇨🇦 Canada: Trade Balance, Ivey PMI (Apr)
📌 Regional differences in services PMIs may trigger temporary market reactions. A larger-than-expected U.S. trade deficit could reignite dollar-selling pressure.
🗣 Key Speeches & Events
- Europe: Speech by Italy’s Central Bank Governor Panetta
- 🇩🇪 Germany: Chancellor nomination vote
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: $42B 10-Year Treasury Auction
- 🇺🇸 Earnings: AMD, Wynn Resorts, Marriott, Electronic Arts, etc.
✅ Current Strategy Stance
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of key events. Directionality is limited.
A mild dollar-selling bias persists, driven by concerns over tariffs and U.S. data.
📌 Best to prioritize position adjustments now and look for potential breakouts after FOMC and MPC pass.
🎯 Short-Term Trading Strategy Map (Week of May 7)
💱 USD/JPY
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | Narrow range | Pre-event selling into strength; avoid countertrends |
| 1H | Slightly bearish | Watch 144.50 resistance; wait for FOMC reaction |
| Daily | Range with yen-weak bias | Supported by BoJ stance, but watch for U.S. rate shifts |
🔍 Key Focus: If FOMC hints at multiple rate cuts this year, USD/JPY may move sharply lower.
💶 EUR/USD
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | Slightly bullish | Buy on dips; 1.1270–1.1300 support area in focus |
| 1H | Bullish | Break above 1.1350 may confirm trend reversal |
| Daily | Higher lows forming | Sustained strength possible on trade & inflation data |
🔍 Key Focus: Positive Eurozone PPI and services PMI may support further euro buying.
🪙 XAU/USD (Gold)
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | High volatility | Sell near upper range; buy near lower range |
| 1H | Consolidating | Watching 3320–3370 range |
| Daily | Weak bias | Prone to sharp moves depending on U.S. data & yields |
🔍 Key Focus: U.S. PCE and job data could create volatility; trade with reduced size.
💷 GBP/JPY
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | Range | Trade cautiously around BOE; small pips strategy |
| 1H | Slightly bullish | Watch for post-event rebound |
| Daily | Upward bias | 192.80–193.00 zone becoming key support area |
🔍 Key Focus: A 0.25% BOE rate cut is priced in—lack of surprise could trigger a rebound.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | In correction | Avoid countertrades; wait for jobs data |
| 1H | Weak bias | 106.00–106.20 as selling zone |
| Daily | Downward pressure | Below 105.00 could accelerate downside |
🔍 Key Focus: Weak employment data could trigger fresh rate cut expectations from the BoC.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | Weak bias | Reacts quickly to CPI and election headlines |
| 1H | Sideways | U.S.-China news could offer swing opportunities |
| Daily | Neutral to weak | CPI and China developments could shift direction |
🔍 Key Focus: Election results and China headlines may ripple through all risk assets.
🇿🇦 ZAR/JPY
| Timeframe | Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 5m–15m | Slight rise | Market sensitive to fiscal reform and tax revenue news |
| 1H | Forming support | Buy bias above 7.60 remains valid |
| Daily | Flat | Awaiting policy updates—spikes possible this week |
