✅ Post-BOJ Market Outlook: Dovish Tone Confirms Yen Selling Bias
Today, the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance has reaffirmed expectations of continued yen selling, with yen weakness prevailing across the board, including in cross-yen pairs.
🎯 Short-Term Focus Points:
- The 144.30–144.50 zone is expected to be a key resistance due to recent option barriers.
- If the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (due at 23:00 JST) is weaker than expected, the dollar could temporarily weaken, creating a dip-buying opportunity.
- Should that dip occur, the 143.70–143.80 range may offer attractive entry points for long positions.
📌 Summary Strategy:
- Base Case: Yen-selling bias continues; dip buying preferred.
- Risk Case: Even if ISM is weak, if U.S. long-term yields remain firm, the dollar-buying trend could resume.
On May 1, 2025, the BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% while revising down its growth and inflation forecasts for both FY2025 and FY2026. The main reason cited was the uncertainty surrounding the global economy due to U.S. tariff policies. This led to a weakening of the yen, with USD/JPY rising to the 144 level.
📉 Key Points from the BOJ’s Policy Decision:
- Policy Rate: Uncollateralized overnight call rate target remains at approximately 0.5%.
- Growth Forecasts:
- FY2025: Revised from +1.1% → +0.5%
- FY2026: Revised from +1.0% → +0.7%
- Inflation Forecasts (Core CPI):
- FY2025: Revised from +2.4% → +2.2%
- FY2026: Revised from +2.0% → +1.7%
- Inflation Target Achievement: Delayed to the “latter half of the projection period.”
The BOJ emphasized the downside risks to growth and inflation stemming from global uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies. However, they expect consumer spending to continue a modest upward trend, supported by rising employee incomes.
💱 Market Reaction & FX Trends:
The BOJ’s dovish posture has triggered yen depreciation. USD/JPY moved from the low 143s to the 144 range. Broad-based yen weakness is also observed in cross-yen pairs.
📊 Short-Term Trade MAP (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, XAU/USD):
- USD/JPY:
- Support: Around 143.50
- Resistance: Around 144.80
- Strategy: With continued BOJ dovishness, yen weakness may persist. Consider dip-buying.
- EUR/USD:
- Support: Around 1.1300
- Resistance: Around 1.1400
- Strategy: Direction likely to be shaped by U.S. economic data. Consider range trading opportunities.
- XAU/USD (Gold):
- Support: Around $3,450
- Resistance: Around $3,500
- Strategy: Watch for moves based on U.S. data and geopolitical risks. Range trading strategy recommended.
📅 Upcoming Key Events (Japan Time):
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 2 (Fri) | U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| May 3 (Sat) | Australian General Election |
The BOJ’s dovish stance, combined with U.S. tariff-related global uncertainties, continues to influence the FX market. Monitoring upcoming economic data and key official remarks will be critical in adapting a flexible trading strategy.
