✅ Weekly Performance (April 21–25, 2025)
📊 Total Weekly Profit: +104,395 USD
🌟 Market Overview
- Speculation over Trump considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell triggered a sharp wave of USD selling and JPY buying.
- USD/JPY plunged to 140.62 at one point amid concerns over the credibility of U.S. monetary policy.
- The Japan-U.S. finance ministerial meeting passed without major disruption, helping reduce market risk sentiment.
- Hopes for U.S.-China trade tension easing also supported the markets.
- However, uncertainty driven by Trump’s comments remains deeply rooted.
🔥 Weekly Market Themes Recap
- Powell dismissal speculation = USD selling / JPY buying dominant
- Smooth Japan-U.S. finance meeting = Risk-off recedes, USD rebounds
- Successful short-selling strategy on Gold
- Cross-yen pairs sold amid JPY buying concerns
- Canadian dollar bought short-term on cooling inflation expectations
📈 Outlook for April 28 Week
USD/JPY
- Direction: Volatility to expand due to the BOJ meeting and key U.S. data
- Key Events:
- BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting (April 30–May 1)
- 2nd round of Japan-U.S. trade talks (May 1)
- U.S. Q1 GDP advance estimate (April 30)
- U.S. March PCE Deflator (April 30)
- U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls (May 2)
EUR/USD
- Direction: Heavy topside amid trade negotiation uncertainties and Eurozone inflation data
- Key Events:
- Progress in U.S.-EU trade negotiations
- Eurozone April HICP flash estimate
GBP/JPY
- Direction: Resilient but highly sensitive to U.S. tariff headlines
- Key Events:
- Few major UK economic releases; will react mainly to U.S. developments
CAD/JPY
- Direction: Influenced by tariff risks and domestic political developments
- Key Events:
- Canada February GDP (April 30)
- Canadian Federal Election (April 28)
AUD/JPY
- Direction: Highly sensitive to risk sentiment; elections and CPI figures are key
- Key Events:
- Australia March CPI and Q1 CPI (April 30)
- Australia March Trade Balance (May 1)
- Australia March Retail Sales and PPI (May 2)
- Australian Federal Election (May 3)
🗓 Key Economic Event Calendar
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| April 29 | South Africa Trade Balance |
| April 30 | U.S. Q1 GDP, U.S. March PCE Deflator, South Africa Monthly Fiscal Balance |
| May 1 | BOJ Meeting Results, Australia March Trade Balance, 2nd Japan-U.S. Trade Talks |
| May 2 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (April), Australia March Retail Sales, PPI |
| May 3 | Australian Federal Election |
✅ Summary
- USD/JPY: Prepare for volatile swings; flexible strategies required around key U.S. and BOJ events.
- EUR/USD: Downside risks if Eurozone inflation and trade talks deteriorate.
- GBP/JPY: Resilient, but susceptible to tariff headlines.
- CAD/JPY: Political and tariff risks keep the pair unstable.
- AUD/JPY: Highly reactive to U.S.-China headlines and domestic politics.
- ZAR/JPY: South African political concerns continue to cap gains.
✍️ Short-Term Trading MAP
🎯 USD/JPY Short-Term Trading Plan
| Range | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 144.20–144.50 | Sell into rallies | Heavy resistance ahead of BOJ meeting |
| 143.30–143.50 | Buy on dips | Rebound potential, but caution on upcoming data |
| Below 142.80 | Accelerate selling | Retest toward 140.00 possible |
🎯 EUR/USD Short-Term Trading Plan
| Range | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0700–1.0720 | Sell | Look for selling opportunities on weaker data/headlines |
| Below 1.0650 | Accelerate selling | Clear break could trigger faster decline |
| Above 1.0770 | Turn to buy | Watch for a reversal depending on ECB commentary |
🎯 XAU/USD (Gold) Short-Term Trading Plan
| Range | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2360–2370 | Sell into rallies | Selling favored on rate hike concerns post-CPI/PCE |
| 2315–2320 | Buy on dips | Watch for rebound if support holds |
| Below 2285 | Accelerate selling | Potential sharp drop toward 2200 |
📊 4-Hour Chart Scenarios
🎯 USD/JPY 4-Hour Outlook
| Status | Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uptrend | Break above 144.50 | Watch for possible shift to buying | Heavy selling near 145.20–145.50 |
| Range-bound | 143.00–144.20 | Focus on scalping strategies | Await BOJ or U.S. data |
| Downtrend | Break below 142.80 | Accelerate selling | Risk of returning to 140s |
🎯 EUR/USD 4-Hour Outlook
| Status | Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uptrend | Break above 1.0770 | Consider shift to buy | Target 1.0820 on breakout |
| Range-bound | 1.0700–1.0740 | Expect volatile moves both ways | U.S. and Eurozone data-dependent |
| Downtrend | Break below 1.0650 | Accelerate selling | Watch for move toward 1.0600 |
🎯 XAU/USD (Gold) 4-Hour Outlook
| Status | Scenario | Strategy | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uptrend | Break above 2370 | Follow momentum buying | Possible test of 2400 |
| Range-bound | 2320–2360 | Selling favored | Still sensitive to rate hike fears |
| Downtrend | Break below 2315 | Accelerate selling | Possible sharp drop toward 2250 |
✍️ Additional Notes
- USD/JPY highly sensitive to BOJ policy outcome and U.S. PCE/Jobs data.
- EUR/USD direction will be dictated by Eurozone April HICP and U.S. GDP data.
- Gold’s stability around 2300 depends heavily on the PCE Deflator results.
