✅ [Dollar Selling Accelerates Again] Trump’s “Pressure on the Fed” and Reciprocal Tariffs Fuel U.S. Risk
— The battle for support at 140 yen. A tug-of-war between Fed officials’ comments and Trump’s pressure —
■ Market Overview: U.S.-led risk-off structure resurfaces
| Phenomenon | Description |
|---|---|
| 🔥 Trump’s renewed pressure | Hints at Powell’s dismissal + explicit rate cut demands → undermines confidence in Fed independence |
| 📉 U.S. stock plunge | Dow drops by over 1,000 points → triggers dollar selling on risk aversion |
| 📊 Treasury yields rising | 10Y yield at 4.43% → policy risk + supply concerns create a rare case of higher yields with a weaker dollar |
| 💱 Broad-based dollar weakness | USD/JPY falls into 139 range, EUR/USD into 1.15s, GBP/USD into 1.34s → Dollar Index hits 6-month lows |
■ USD/JPY: 140 Support at Risk — A Clear Break Could Trigger Further Decline
| Key Point | Explanation |
|---|---|
| 🧱 140.00 level | Large NY cut options on 24th & 28th → strong interest to defend this psychological level |
| 📉 Break risk | A confirmed break below in London/NY could open the path to 139.30–138.80 range |
Key Levels
- Support: 140.00 (psychological & option), 139.65, 139.30 (Sept 2024 low)
- Resistance: 140.70, 141.20 (near 5-day moving average)
■ Key Events to Watch
| Event | Focus |
|---|---|
| Fed officials’ speeches (Jefferson, Kashkari, Barkin, etc.) | Key will be whether they defend Powell. If not, dollar selling may intensify. |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) | Low impact, but market likely to follow headlines more than data. |
| ECB officials (Lagarde, De Guindos, Knot) | Could push EUR/USD higher, especially if combined with dollar weakness. |
| U.S. 2Y bond auction ($69B) | Weak demand could mean continued dollar selling despite higher yields. |
■ Strategy Focus: How to Approach the 140.00 Level?
| Scenario | Strategy |
|---|---|
| 📉 Clear break below 140 (daily close) | ✅ Continue shorting / sell on rallies → Target: 139.30, stop above 140.70 |
| ⏸ Tests 140 but rebounds into close | ✅ Consider limited long trades (scalp or intraday buys in 140.20–140.50 range) |
| 🧨 Hawkish support for Powell from Fed | ✅ Brief dollar rebound → Could test 141.00 but heavy resistance expected |
✅ Summary: U.S. Political Risk Now Driving the Market
- Trump vs. the Fed = a clash between central bank independence and political pressure
- The dollar’s credibility hinges on how Fed officials respond in coming statements
- USD/JPY’s 140.00 is the “last line of defense” — a break would likely trigger a fund-led selloff
