【Today Is a “Quiet Friday,” but the Market Sits at the Epicenter】
— Good Friday leads to a wait-and-see market, but Middle East risks may strike without warning —
■ Market Overview: “Risk Noise” Lurking in a Global Holiday Mood
Today, Friday, March 28, marks Good Friday, with widespread market closures across Europe and the U.S.
| Region | Closure Status |
|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | Full closure of stock and bond markets (Nasdaq and others closed) |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Full closure of major financial markets (UK, Germany, France all closed) |
| 🌏 Asia & Oceania | 🇦🇺Australia, 🇳🇿New Zealand, 🇸🇬Singapore, 🇭🇰Hong Kong also closed |
📉 With Tokyo being the only major market open, liquidity is extremely thin. While price movement may remain limited, “unexpected flows in illiquid conditions” require maximum caution.
■ Expected Ranges & Focus Currencies (Today)
| Pair | Expected Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 141.80–142.30 | Movement mainly driven by Tokyo, focused on weekend adjustment and waiting for short-term catalysts |
| EUR/USD | 1.1350–1.1380 | Limited volatility due to absence of European players. U.S.-Middle East headlines may cause fluctuations |
| Cross JPY Pairs | Yen strength expected | Contrary to recent USD-led moves, “yen-driven flows” likely to dominate today |
■ Geopolitical Risk: Maximum Vigilance on Surprise Headlines
🚨 The biggest non-economic driver today is Middle East-related headlines.
- Israel: Reports suggest “hundreds of bunker-buster bombs” are arriving today
→ Risk of sudden military action without prior warning is rising - Iran: Reportedly presented the U.S. with “three-stage proposal”, suggesting final-stage negotiations
→ Breakdown or military action could trigger sharp moves in oil, gold, and yen
📌 With extremely low liquidity, sudden Middle East developments could cause rapid spikes in volatility. Tight position sizing and properly placed stop-losses are essential.
■ Today’s Trading Strategy: Mostly Sit Out, Scalp Only if Necessary, Stay Alert for Risk Events
| Approach | Details |
|---|---|
| ✅ Base Plan | Observe or hold very small positions. Only consider small-range scalping inside expected range |
| ⚠ Risk Triggers | Be on alert for comments from U.S. officials or breaking news on Israel-Iran tensions |
| ⛔ Prohibited | Avoid “breakout trades” or “volatility-driven averaging down” — too dangerous in this market |
✅ Summary: Silence May Not Be “Safe,” but a “Calm Before the Storm”
🌐 The world market is largely on holiday — typical catalysts may not move the market today
🚨 However, any sudden statement on Middle East tensions or Trump’s tariff policy could cause unexpected swings
📉 If the market does move on a day that “should be quiet,” that may be the precursor to a real event
